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tl;dr: If you want your MY24 order scheduled, drop the constraints and make sure your dealer has enough allocations.
<nerd>
95XXX is the highest VIN so far. That means Ford scheduled 95,000+ Mavericks. That is an average of 9,500 Mavericks per month since December. Only twice during MY22 did Ford exceed that number for a given month. In fact, thanks to the airbag recall, Ford is on track to more than double last year's July output. Ford's own numbers show they had built 40% more MY23 Mavericks in May and June compared to the same time in MY22 but only 11% more from December to the end of June.
Going back to the highest VIN, assuming a conservative 80% are US, that leaves 76,000 US orders scheduled to date.
At Ford's initial 65-35 ratio, that 76,000 equates to an originally planned production for US orders of:
Ford took orders for (including cancelled MY22 VINs):
That leaves a potential difference of (based on planned 65-35 and the current highest VIN):
Ford's actual leftovers based on the commodities list before today's scheduling was 24,782 with 83% hybrid and 17% EB. Basic math says Ford had to schedule:
That means, compared to the originally planned 65-35 ratio, Ford actually scheduled or cancelled (based on the highest VIN):
What does this mean for MY24? Ford has the capacity to fulfill all outstanding MY23 orders that are rolled over to MY24 during the 2024 model year assuming dealers get enough allocations.(I reserve the right to rescind this statement if the actual number of MY24 orders extends out to stupid territory.)
For EB orders, now you know why we have been saying "Allocations is King." Despite having the planned EB capacity to build the remaining EB orders six times over, Ford still has leftover EB retail US orders (again, based on the numbers Ford provided earlier this week). This also shows why @fordvideoguy has been hitting the constraints hard. How many of those unbuilt EBs have mudflaps or tonneau covers?
There are also a ton of dealer stock and fleet EBs out in the wild; including my own dealer, who has two EBs in stock.
</nerd>
Caveat: The highest VIN and the US/Not-US ratio are the only numbers that cannot be definitely nailed down. All remaining figures are the result of Ford's own publications and math.
<nerd>
95XXX is the highest VIN so far. That means Ford scheduled 95,000+ Mavericks. That is an average of 9,500 Mavericks per month since December. Only twice during MY22 did Ford exceed that number for a given month. In fact, thanks to the airbag recall, Ford is on track to more than double last year's July output. Ford's own numbers show they had built 40% more MY23 Mavericks in May and June compared to the same time in MY22 but only 11% more from December to the end of June.
Going back to the highest VIN, assuming a conservative 80% are US, that leaves 76,000 US orders scheduled to date.
At Ford's initial 65-35 ratio, that 76,000 equates to an originally planned production for US orders of:
26,600 hybrids
49,400 EBs
Ford took orders for (including cancelled MY22 VINs):
57,470 hybrids
27,230 EBs
That leaves a potential difference of (based on planned 65-35 and the current highest VIN):
30,870 hybrids
-22,170 EBs
Ford's actual leftovers based on the commodities list before today's scheduling was 24,782 with 83% hybrid and 17% EB. Basic math says Ford had to schedule:
20,569 hybrids
4,213 EBs
So, before today, Ford had scheduled or cancelled:36,901 hybrid retail US orders
23,017 EB retail US orders
That means, compared to the originally planned 65-35 ratio, Ford actually scheduled or cancelled (based on the highest VIN):
10,301 more hybrid orders than originally planned (39% increase in retail scheduling)
26,383 fewer EB orders than originally planned (53% decrease in retail scheduling)
What does this mean for MY24? Ford has the capacity to fulfill all outstanding MY23 orders that are rolled over to MY24 during the 2024 model year assuming dealers get enough allocations.(I reserve the right to rescind this statement if the actual number of MY24 orders extends out to stupid territory.)
For EB orders, now you know why we have been saying "Allocations is King." Despite having the planned EB capacity to build the remaining EB orders six times over, Ford still has leftover EB retail US orders (again, based on the numbers Ford provided earlier this week). This also shows why @fordvideoguy has been hitting the constraints hard. How many of those unbuilt EBs have mudflaps or tonneau covers?
There are also a ton of dealer stock and fleet EBs out in the wild; including my own dealer, who has two EBs in stock.
</nerd>
Caveat: The highest VIN and the US/Not-US ratio are the only numbers that cannot be definitely nailed down. All remaining figures are the result of Ford's own publications and math.
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