Long McArthur 794 MY23 Orders from Episode 58 & 59 Live Stream, 132 XL, 449 XLT, 213 Lariat with 68.6% of them Hybrids !!!

[Vols44]

@fordvideoguy estimates Ford will build 80-100k Mavericks for MY23.

Using the new allocation formula, share of region sales is 60% of monthly allocations and regional availability is 40%. The "turn and burn" sales velocity analysis is the second way to earn additional monthly allocations.

If they sell 500 MY22's 500 would be the first part and additional allocations will be added by the previous three month share of allocations/sales velocity analysis.

In E54 the example part one gave them 22 allocations and part two added 8. based on the 500 sales this means LM would theoretically earn 681 allocations for MY23.

The regional average retail to driveway percentage was 85% with LM around 91%. With LM's respect for the name match policy they would cancel an order instead of converting it to s stock order and making 5-10k on a single sale. This reduces the sales by 9%, but it keeps the allocations the same.


On another subject area he expects a person will be able to switch engines in the event the 2.5L is balanced out and a person with a COVP approved order still wants a MY23. Matter of fact; a person can make any changes to their order except for the body and PEP codes. The three body codes are: W8E (FWD), W8F (AWD), W8G (advanced AWD/Tremor). The three PEP codes are the XL, XLT and Lariat trims.

Footnote: option 19W cannot be entered by a dealership. It's the required option to delete the wifi hot spot. Ford will do it automatically when an order is submitted via COVP. Page 3 of the order guide mentions it, but it's a formality handled by the order bank administrators who undoubtedly wrote code to satisfy that requirement.

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[DavesMav]

There's no way Long McArthur Ford gets over 600 Hybrid Mavericks built as 2023 models. I'm sorry, I love all that Tim does but this just seems very irresponsible. I also realize an order placed has an infinitely higher chance of being built than no order at all, but LM's Hybrid percentage is wayyy out of alignment with what Ford estimates they can actually build. I do suspect LM will be giving proper priority to existing customers so I don't think those folks have much to worry about, but those NEW orders placed at the 400, 500 or 600 mark (or later), I'm sorry, but no way customers will see those.

 

[Ponchsox]

I see a significant price increase coming next year for hybrids to curb demand.

 

[skadizzle]

I see a significant price increase coming next year for hybrids to curb demand.

They tried this year and it wasn't enough. I do think they will make the hybrid more expensive than the Ecoboost going forward like every other hybrid on the market. Hopefully its not as bad as the EVs where they are adding $6,000-8,000 to the new model year.

 

[Sirk]

Why would LM, or any other dealer for that matter, stop taking customer orders? As long as FoMoCo is taking orders, customers and dealers should be free to place orders.

Anyone with more than a passing interest in the Maverick should be aware of the MY 2022 situation, so they should be aware that nothing is guaranteed. Except that one can be virtually guaranteed they will not get a ‘23 Maverick with their desired specs, at MSRP, if they don’t order one.

Although Ford has provided guidance on expected 2023 production, they (and we) don’t have a crystal ball. We’re talking about vehicles that will still be rolling off the assembly line one year from today. A lot can happen with regard to supply chains in a year.

Unlike a lot of dealers, LM is being very transparent with customers on their place in LM’s queue as well as sharing communication from Ford. That’s not something many other Ford dealers can claim.

I don’t believe LM is being irresponsible. They’re a dealership who is in business to sell vehicles. They are communicating as clearly as information allows. Customers can make their own determination on their odds with LM vs. any other dealer.

There's no way Long McArthur Ford gets over 600 Hybrid Mavericks built as 2023 models. I'm sorry, I love all that Tim does but this just seems very irresponsible. I also realize an order placed has an infinitely higher chance of being built than no order at all, but LM's Hybrid percentage is wayyy out of alignment with what Ford estimates they can actually build. I do suspect LM will be giving proper priority to existing customers so I don't think those folks have much to worry about, but those NEW orders placed at the 400, 500 or 600 mark (or later), I'm sorry, but no way customers will see those.

 

[DavesMav]

Fair enough @Sirk , but I still think LM really should have capped their Hybrid orders at about the 300 mark.

Even if LM miraculously receives 700 MY23 Allocations (which from Tim, it sounds like they are expecting less), if Ford can only build approx. 35% of those as Hybrids, LM would only recieve 245 Hybrid Mavericks. The 600+ Hybrid orders is just reckless.

 

[DavesMav]

I had a local dealer that did not/is not inputting a single new 2023 order. They are solely focusing on getting existing customer orders re-ordered and built. Granger Ford is doing this exact same thing. So you're also right, nothing is preventing dealers like LM from inputting as many orders as possible, doesn't mean it's the right move though.

 

[mtd14]

I wonder what the breakdown for hybrid/gas is for the rollover orders. If it’s 100% hybrid for rollovers, then there’s a chance the new orders would have needed an 20/80 hybrid/gas just to balance it out.

 

[commadorebob]

I had a local dealer that did not/is not inputting a single new 2023 order. They are solely focusing on getting existing customer orders re-ordered and built. Granger Ford is doing this exact same thing. So you're also right, nothing is preventing dealers like LM from inputting as many orders as possible, doesn't mean it's the right move though.

Mine had no 22 rollovers. So, everything entered was a new order that they steered away from Hybrid.

 

[Maverickblues]

Tim said that in allocation information announced by dealers like the 11 mentioned are either for Stock Orders not Retail Orders or that there is something wrong with the numbers released.

So basically just wait until further details emerge.

He also said the allotment would be based on a 12 month period.

 

[Maverickblues]

Mine had no 22 rollovers. So, everything entered was a new order that they steered away from Hybrid.

So I have a vin for a 22 eco, xlt but really wanted a hybrid. I ordered a hybrid XL on thursady and received the confirmation from Ford that night. Do you think getting an order in on Thursday gives me a better chance to possibly get it? I thought so when I ordered, but now, not really thinking too positively. On the bright side, I am very happy and looking forward to my 22 coming hopefully before Christmas!

 

[commadorebob]

So I have a vin for a 22 eco, xlt but really wanted a hybrid. I ordered a hybrid XL on thursady and received the confirmation from Ford that night. Do you think getting an order in on Thursday gives me a better chance to possibly get it? I thought so when I ordered, but now, not really thinking too positively. On the bright side, I am very happy and looking forward to my 22 coming hopefully before Christmas!

It's a guessing game because we don't know how the dealers are allocated and where you are on the dealer's list in terms of time stamp. If they put 100 in a night but you were the 99th one they put in, even at the top priority you have 98 people ahead of you.

 

[reciprocating_ravioli]

@fordvideoguy


On another subject area he expects a person will be able to switch engines in the event the 2.5L is balanced out and a person with a COVP approved order still wants a MY23. Matter of fact; a person can make any changes to their order except for the body and PEP codes. The three body codes are: W8E (FWD), W8F (AWD), W8G (advanced AWD/Tremor). The three PEP codes are the XL, XLT and Lariat trims.

That really sucks.

If Ford told me the hybrid wasn't going to be built, and I could get an EB instead - I would do so if AWD was an option. In fact, Ford should make that a free option IF you ordered a hybrid and they aren't going to build it.

 

[Maverickblues]

It's a guessing game because we don't know how the dealers are allocated and where you are on the dealer's list in terms of time stamp. If they put 100 in a night but you were the 99th one they put in, even at the top priority you have 98 people ahead of you.

Yep, it doesn't feel good. I will stop by there on Friday after the dust has settled a little.

 

[Landric]

I originally ordered a hybrid with LM. I was a 2022 that didn't get scheduled so I would probably have gotten my hybrid in 2023 sometime. I changed this morning to a XLT Tremor. That isn't because of the 80%/20% hybrid/EB numbers at LM I just really wanted the Tremor and decided I should just go with that. I don't drive my personal vehicle enough to really worry about gas prices and our other vehicle is a RAV4 hybrid that has a combined MPG average of 40 MPG (both EPA and in my real world experience). Hopefully I made the right choice. I really feel good about it. If there was a AWD hybrid I would have probably stuck with that. If there is eventually a plug in hybrid AWD or even full electric AWD Maverick that will probably eventually replace the 2023 Tremor.

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