Is a Bigger Hybrid crunch coming? -- warning signs do exist.

[Old Hickory Trojan]

Ford's chosen build ratio of Hybrid 35% and EcoBoost 65% isn't about constraint on batteries or parts for its hybrid powertrains. It's about a choice they made for their production mix that offers up the best profit margin business plan at the end of the build year. This is most likely in part because the additional profit margin for the EcoBoost balances out what may be a low or negative margin for Hybrid. This is typical in the industry.

They are adding the hybrid powertrain to the Bronco Sport for the 24 model year, and PHEV will be rolling out for both likely by 2026 if not earlier. (Im hoping PHEV for Maverick in 24 in its first refresh) They have ability and capacity to build all they need.

I told my wife that yesterday.... and let me add one other reason Ford produce the Maverick Hybrid at all...and that is to increase their truck lines average MPG to satisfy the government requirements IMHO...add the margin issues for profitability and I'm actually surprised they are saying 35% will be Hybrids..

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[DeeZee]

1 hummer battery = about 200 maverick batteries

Honestly the Hummer is a joke.

 

[DavesMav]

I told my wife that yesterday.... and let me add one other reason Ford produce the Maverick Hybrid at all...and that is to increase their truck lines average MPG to satisfy the government requirements IMHO...add the margin issues for profitability and I'm actually surprised they are saying 35% will be Hybrids..

I keep seeing posts like this (so I'm not picking on you specifically in any way), saying the Maverick Hybrid is to increase the average MPG in Ford's truck lineup, which undoubtedly, it does.. but how much actually? YTD Ford production through August reveals a measly 61,000 Mavericks produced to 545,000 F-Series trucks.. If we assume 35% hybrids on the Maverick, that's only 21k Hybrid Mavericks. It would take way more than 21,000 Mavericks to really move the needle on average MPG. We're talking a 25-to-1 ratio of F-Series to Hybrid Mavericks produced on the year so far..

As a simplified reference, 25 F-Series averaging say 15 MPG (generous?) + 1 Maverick averaging 37 MPG (est. EPA combined) results in an average of 15.85 mpg. That one Hybrid Maverick isn't boosting the average all that much.

 

[Peps]

Well it was a joke. The hummer EV is a 213kw battery. Which is freaking huge. So I guess it's not so much a joke.

Gm could have supplied batteries probably for 3 260-mile range SUV.
what a waste

 

[Esteban88]

What's interesting to me about this chart how many more Mavericks are being built as compared to Rangers.

 

[jsus]

Gm could have supplied batteries probably for 3 260-mile range SUV.
what a waste

Yeah, but the Hummer tanks could run over those three 260 mi range BEV SUVs without breaking a sweat, man, isn't that sweet?

(Not really...)

 

[DavesMav]

I keep seeing posts like this (so I'm not picking on you specifically in any way), saying the Maverick Hybrid is to increase the average MPG in Ford's truck lineup, which undoubtedly, it does.. but how much actually? YTD Ford production through August reveals a measly 61,000 Mavericks produced to 545,000 F-Series trucks.. If we assume 35% hybrids on the Maverick, that's only 21k Hybrid Mavericks. It would take way more than 21,000 Mavericks to really move the needle on average MPG. We're talking a 25-to-1 ratio of F-Series to Hybrid Mavericks produced on the year so far..

As a simplified reference, 25 F-Series averaging say 15 MPG (generous?) + 1 Maverick averaging 37 MPG (est. EPA combined) results in an average of 15.85 mpg. That one Hybrid Maverick isn't boosting the average all that much.

Just for fun because I wanted to dive a little deeper, and FWIW these are my best guess at average MPG.

Looking at Ford's AVG MPG as a whole based on "trucks" produced YTD. Approx. 17 MPG without the Maverick, sprinkle in the Maverick and that number goes just above 18 MPG. So the Maverick is certainly boosting Ford's average in their truck lineup, but they're going to need to produce quite a few more to really bring that number up.

 

[futuremavowner]

Exactly.

 

[Joe Kelly]

In addition to many articles out there like the one below published over the past many months, there is plenty of evidence there is and will be big problems producing the Hybrid Maverick until the battery supply problems ease. Ford certainly saw this coming for some time because just a few months ago additional Ford 2.0 Ecoboost engines were assigned to be built at the Cleveland Engine Plant in Ohio. This indicated that the existing plant supplying 2.0 EB engines were going to need help meeting demand. This directly relates to the 65% - 35% (Eco-Hybrid) numbers released just prior to opening the 2023 order banks.

Increasing the manufacturing of the Hybrid engine is not the problem, Ford could and would -- if they could just get more 27-kW, 1.1-kWh battery packs.

Please understand I am not saying Ford handled Maverick production overall the best they could have. I have been waiting eleven months for a Hybrid Lariat that was pushed to 2023. The thought of others waiting longer is absurd.

1. I can understand most of what Ford is dealing with but the biggest "constraint" for me has been information.
2. If the folks at Farley's Steakhouse would just tell us how many people are in line, we would have some idea when we would be seated!
3. If they knew they were going to run out of Steaks, they should not have let more people get in line.


By: Nat Rubio-Licht
April 18, 2022

The ongoing global chip crunch has made consumer electronics tougher to track down. The electric vehicle industry faces a similar conundrum, but instead of semiconductors, companies are staring down a shortage of materials to make batteries. Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe predicted that the supply of EV batteries would become a huge issue in years to come.
The chip crunch, Scaringe said, would look like a "small appetizer to what we are about to feel on battery cells over the next two decades," according to the Wall Street Journal.

While giving press a tour of the company's factory in Normal, Illinois, last week, Scaringe said that building enough batteries to keep up with demand for EVs would be a major hurdle for the industry. He anticipates shortages in every part of the battery building process, including mining raw materials like cobalt, lithium and nickel, processing materials and building the battery cells themselves.

“Put very simply, all the world’s cell production combined represents well under 10% of what we will need in 10 years,” Scaringe told reporters, according to the WSJ. “Meaning, 90% to 95% of the supply chain does not exist."

Look at the Fox allocation published a week ago by Ford were something like 27% of 2023 production will be hybred. That should answer your question.

 

[GPSMan]

It's a joke. There are far less hummers produced. It's over 200kwh

Ethically, should one Hummer be built or 200 Hybrid Mavericks using the same number of battery cells?

When it comes to environmental impact the choice is black and white.

 

[pigsareus]

Ford's chosen build ratio of Hybrid 35% and EcoBoost 65% isn't about constraint on batteries or parts for its hybrid powertrains. It's about a choice they made for their production mix that offers up the best profit margin business plan at the end of the build year. This is most likely in part because the additional profit margin for the EcoBoost balances out what may be a low or negative margin for Hybrid. This is typical in the industry.

They are adding the hybrid powertrain to the Bronco Sport for the 24 model year, and PHEV will be rolling out for both likely by 2026 if not earlier. (Im hoping PHEV for Maverick in 24 in its first refresh) They have ability and capacity to build all they need.

well if profit margin is holding back hybrids they could just raise the price for it. Buyers would likely choose to pay another 2K on a hybrid in exchange for it actually getting built in that their fuel savings would eventually cover the increase.

 

[HybridOnOrder]

Ford's chosen build ratio of Hybrid 35% and EcoBoost 65% isn't about constraint on batteries or parts for its hybrid powertrains. It's about a choice they made for their production mix that offers up the best profit margin business plan at the end of the build year. This is most likely in part because the additional profit margin for the EcoBoost balances out what may be a low or negative margin for Hybrid. This is typical in the industry.

They are adding the hybrid powertrain to the Bronco Sport for the 24 model year, and PHEV will be rolling out for both likely by 2026 if not earlier. (Im hoping PHEV for Maverick in 24 in its first refresh) They have ability and capacity to build all they need.

OMG, Exactly!

Biggest constraint: Profit 100%

 

[Pikey87]

All I know is that every single person I personally know that ordered a hybrid from other brands last year and this year have already gotten theirs.

 

[atomguy245]

All I know is that every single person I personally know that ordered a hybrid from other brands last year and this year have already gotten theirs.

It definitely seems like Ford is struggling more than other automakers. But is that just because we are all following the issue so closely that we don't realize the other brands' forum are having the same issue? If you drive around you see that every dealer lot is empty, not just Ford, but I only really see stories in the news about Ford struggling to get vehicles built. I just bought a Chevy Bolt, and over that that forum no one is talking about this or that option delaying their build, and Chevy is producing the Bolt in similar numbers to the Maverick now that they are back to building them.

 

[Impetus19]

My local Kia dealer has 4 sportage hybrids on the lot and they are selling about 12k a month of them, which is similar numbers to the Maverick. Sounds like mostly a Ford problem.

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