Estimated Build Date Graph

[Dun4791]

i dont think the allocation process itself is the problem but the supply chain issue is.
I think if there was 0 supply chain issues the last orders would only be a month or 2 apart or so.
But because there supply issues, some people can “cut in line” by ordering a maverick with no issues.

From the way i understand it, I disagree.

Regardless of supply chain issues with the allocation process the way it is, if you are order number 11 and your dealer only has 10 allocations, you don’t get your build. Supply chain issues or not.

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[FirstOnRaceDay]

From the way i understand it, I disagree.

Regardless of supply chain issues with the allocation process the way it is, if you are order number 11 and your dealer only has 10 allocations, you don’t get your build. Supply chain issues or not.

I agree but “in theory” every dealer SHOULD be around the same percentage. So say dealer A has 10 allocations and 11 orders. Odds are dealer B is around 20 allocations and 22 orders. Again IN THEORY.
If there IS a difference i do not think its that large UNLESS you have some dealers that marketed hard core “COME TO US TO MAKE ALL YOUR RESERVATIONS” because they KNEW of this process and are trying to lock in as many sales they can.

so the best thing you can do is call your dealer and see what their allocation is and how many orders are ahead of you.
if its this year i wouldnt worry.
if your pushed to next year, switch

but i DOA WISH ford had all this information more available

 

[MLowe05]

each dealer is given a maximum of each vehicle. Based on sales. That INCLUDES reservations and orders because they are still making a profit. So to “fair” to all the dealers.
Its not fair to the consumer but it is what it is.

so say a large dealer is allowed 100 Mavericks a year. If they have 120 orders. 20 of those orders will have to wait till next year. And if a dealer wants ANY inventory they will have to wait until the orders are filled.

How do you know this?

 

[Dun4791]

I agree but “in theory” every dealer SHOULD be around the same percentage. So say dealer A has 10 allocations and 11 orders. Odds are dealer B is around 20 allocations and 22 orders. Again IN THEORY.
If there IS a difference i do not think its that large UNLESS you have some dealers that marketed hard core “COME TO US TO MAKE ALL YOUR RESERVATIONS” because they KNEW of this process and are trying to lock in as many sales they can.

so the best thing you can do is call your dealer and see what their allocation is and how many orders are ahead of you.
if its this year i wouldnt worry.
if your pushed to next year, switch

but i DOA WISH ford had all this information more available

I called, I’m #33, but they won’t tell me what their Allocation is for the year. Closely guarded trade secret!

I think at this point, I’ll likely just get something else.

It’s not impatience, it’s the lack of communication.

So, I don’t understand why a dealer who took LOTS of orders, in the hundreds who likely knows they don’t have the allocation to get them all filed would do it.

Edit. Most importantly. Why would ford confirm an order through the verification process for a dealer who has already met their yearly allocation? That’s my biggest question. Ford has the info. Do they want disgruntled customers? Would be better to just say no

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

How do you know this?

The bronco has been dealing with the same thing. We at Bronco6g deciphered it all. Including taking with dealers.

I called, I’m #33, but they won’t tell me what their Allocation is for the year. Closely guarded trade secret!

I think at this point, I’ll likely just get something else.

It’s not impatience, it’s the lack of communication.

So, I don’t understand why a dealer who took LOTS of orders, in the hundreds who likely knows they don’t have the allocation to get them all filed would do it.

Edit. Most importantly. Why would ford confirm an order through the verification process for a dealer who has already met their yearly allocation? That’s my biggest question. Ford has the info. Do they want disgruntled customers? Would be better to just say no

it definitely is troubling.
but dealers took lots of orders to get more sales. Thankfully some are telling their reservation holders if they are getting bumped to MY2023. But unfortunately some are being super shady. To hopefully prevent customers from switching dealers or cancelling.

they will just move all their orders over allocations to next years allocation.
Which is why if your told “not till next year” try switching dealers. Unless you have a hybrid order in which you MIGHT have to wait till 2023

 

[projectvortex]

So made a few graphs to illustrate when you MIGHT expect YOUR Maverick to be built based on when you ordered.
Using numbers from how many reservations were made and assuming 70% order rate. Comparing that to production numbers which (fingers crossed) have been hovering around 6k units per month for the last 3 months. (Hopefully that increases).

these will be updated monthly as production numbers come in.

However there are other factors that contribute to Build Dates other than Reservation date.

1 Dealer allocation. Larger dealers get more Mavericks than smaller.

2 Maverick Configuration, hybrids are going to take longer to build, as well as Lariats or LUX/ High packages requiring more chips.

these graphs are just to help approximate when you COULD expect your Maverick.

First is the Weeks reservations. From reveal to then end of 2021.

blue line is Monthly orders based on reservation date. Green is total.
Hard to know EXACTLY how many orders there are, but this is a close guestimation.

Then heres the monthly production numbers.
View attachment 33574
blue line is the monthly production numbers, green is projected.
Grey/black line is total.

as you can see based on when your placed your reservation, you can get a general idea of when you could see your maverick. Again there are other factors. If you have a more simple build with the 2.0 your likely gonna get it earlier than a complex hybrid.

I think its safe to say if you have a order for a 2.0 currently you will definitely get it before the new year. If you have a current order for a hybrid, they COULD be done by the end of the year. But the farther down the reservation list you are, the lest likely thats going to happen unfortunately.

So how does the fact that there are many VINs now over the 50000 mark that haven’t been built yet factor into this? Interesting charts.

 

[KenT]

How does dealer allocation play into it if the ROVP creates an allocation above what the dealers allocation would otherwise be? Confuses me

Me too. I have been reading this blog for months and still not have seen an answer to this question.

 

[KenT]

each dealer is given a maximum of each vehicle. Based on sales. That INCLUDES reservations and orders because they are still making a profit. So to “fair” to all the dealers.
Its not fair to the consumer but it is what it is.

so say a large dealer is allowed 100 Mavericks a year. If they have 120 orders. 20 of those orders will have to wait till next year. And if a dealer wants ANY inventory they will have to wait until the orders are filled.

but if a small dealer only is allow 20 mavericks. But only has 15 orders, after those 15 are filled they could get 5 more or inventory.

the thing is. Some mavericks are easier to build (ie XL and XLT 2.0) so their may be a surplus. More mavericks than orders. So dealers could sell those to new customers by having them order that day then get it in a week or 2. Basically jumping the line. But that counts towards their allocation. Pushing orders back.

but most people dont want to change dealers meaning they will have to wait longer.

its very messed up. But i can see why ford is doing it for the dealers sake. And it probably wouldnt be as big of a deal if there wasnt any supply issues and ford could build the in demand packages.

I think this example applies only to orders for dealer stock. Retail order are supposed to be allocated above regular dealer allocations. So how are retail orders allocated? Even the “Ford video guy” did not explain this.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

Me too. I have been reading this blog for months and still not have seen an answer to this question.

from what we can find. Dealer allocation has 3 factors.
50% of the factor is over all sales. How many new cars you sell. Last 3 years
25% bronco sport sales
25% bronco reservations.
is how the bronco is calculated. Maverick is likely similar.



so you COULD guestimate.
1.9m fords sold in usa in 2021 / 3000 dealers is 633 sales per dealer on average. If theres 80,000 mavericks made in 22. Then Average dealer will get about 23 each.

so see if you find out if your dealer is above or below average.

 

[Dun4791]

from what we can find. Dealer allocation has 3 factors.
50% of the factor is over all sales. How many new cars you sell. Last 3 years
25% bronco sport sales
25% bronco reservations.
is how the bronco is calculated. Maverick is likely similar.



so you COULD guestimate.
1.9m fords sold in usa in 2021 / 3000 dealers is 633 sales per dealer on average. If theres 80,000 mavericks made in 22. Then Average dealer will get about 23 each.

so see if you find out if your dealer is above or below average.

I’m 32, and my dealer is small so…

I just think the ROVP should deny people if the dealer has reached their allocation. The email should include the names of a few dealers close to you that have available allocations so you can order there. Or just tell you sorry, try again next year. But don’t verify and approve orders and then not fill them because there aren’t enough allocations where you ordered. That’s just stupid.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

I’m 32, and my dealer is small so…

I just think the ROVP should deny people if the dealer has reached their allocation. The email should include the names of a few dealers close to you that have available allocations so you can order there. Or just tell you sorry, try again next year. But don’t verify and approve orders and then not fill them because there aren’t enough allocations where you ordered. That’s just stupid.

its a very silly system for sure thats screwing over customers

 

[DJF]

I believe the Ford sales guy from Long Mcarthur who populates these forums said a few days ago, he's got 559 Maverick orders. Only 90 have been delivered and 135 are in production or have build dates. And, he had 23 Maverick allocations for January. If those numbers are correct, I don't see how it's possible to get them all built in the next 8 months.

 

[mamboman777]

So made a few graphs to illustrate when you MIGHT expect YOUR Maverick to be built based on when you ordered.
Using numbers from how many reservations were made and assuming 70% order rate. Comparing that to production numbers which (fingers crossed) have been hovering around 6k units per month for the last 3 months. (Hopefully that increases).

these will be updated monthly as production numbers come in.

However there are other factors that contribute to Build Dates other than Reservation date.

1 Dealer allocation. Larger dealers get more Mavericks than smaller.

2 Maverick Configuration, hybrids are going to take longer to build, as well as Lariats or LUX/ High packages requiring more chips.

these graphs are just to help approximate when you COULD expect your Maverick.

First is the Weeks reservations. From reveal to then end of 2021.

blue line is Monthly orders based on reservation date. Green is total.
Hard to know EXACTLY how many orders there are, but this is a close guestimation.

Then heres the monthly production numbers.
View attachment 33574
blue line is the monthly production numbers, green is projected.
Grey/black line is total.

as you can see based on when your placed your reservation, you can get a general idea of when you could see your maverick. Again there are other factors. If you have a more simple build with the 2.0 your likely gonna get it earlier than a complex hybrid.

I think its safe to say if you have a order for a 2.0 currently you will definitely get it before the new year. If you have a current order for a hybrid, they COULD be done by the end of the year. But the farther down the reservation list you are, the lest likely thats going to happen unfortunately.

So, first of all, bravo, nice job.

Secondly, why has no one at Ford figured this out? (I guess maybe you do work for Ford?!?)

Thirdly, eeeesh....i feel like I've been intentionally misled. Ford knew my 2/14 build date for my 8/1 order was "optimistic." Getting it by August is what it looks like for me.

It's the vehicle I want. *Pats 2012 Ford Focus* "hang in there buddy"

 

[Naranjita]

A small dealer is not necessarily bad. It depends on how many orders they have taken in versus their allocations. If you are the only Maverick orderer at a small dealer, it may not be so bad. But if your small dealer with little allocation has a a higher per capita number of Maverick orders compared to their typical volume, you may be waiting a long while.

I get the concept of rewarding dealers who give you big business. However, the weighting ratio for higher volume dealers appears way off. How would a smaller dealer or newer dealer change and increase its sales and grow Ford's over all sales volume in the system? It would be very difficult and take a long, long time. It goes against Ford's own goals in the long run.

Obviously it can be done. Granger and Long McArthur are not in large markets. They managed to find their way in the system and build high volume sales. They probably started out as lower volume dealers and worked hard and took a long time investing in their business and adjusting within the model. Now I am sure they wouldn't want the system the change since they have found a way to thrive within it.

But it still doesn't seem right. Especially to the customer. We all want to be treated the same, regardless of zip code. All our dollars that we earn are the same. I got lucky. I chose a high volume dealer, Mullinax Ford. But I did not know the allocation system when I made that choice. I just got lucky.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

A small dealer is not necessarily bad. It depends on how many orders they have taken in versus their allocations. If you are the only Maverick orderer at a small dealer, it may not be so bad. But if your small dealer with little allocation has a a higher per capita number of Maverick orders compared to their typical volume, you may be waiting a long while.

I get the concept of rewarding dealers who give you big business. However, the weighting ratio for higher volume dealers appears way off. How would a smaller dealer or newer dealer change and increase its sales and grow Ford's over all sales volume in the system? It would be very difficult and take a long, long time. It goes against Ford's own goals in the long run.

Obviously it can be done. Granger and Long McArthur are not in large markets. They managed to find their way in the system and build high volume sales. They probably started out as lower volume dealers and worked hard and took a long time investing in their business and adjusting within the model. Now I am sure they wouldn't want the system the change since they have found a way to thrive within it.

But it still doesn't seem right. Especially to the customer. We all want to be treated the same, regardless of zip code. All our dollars that we earn are the same. I got lucky. I chose a high volume dealer, Mullinax Ford. But I did not know the allocation system when I made that choice. I just got lucky.

I think this whole situation would be better if
1 there wasnt any parts shortages.
2 there was a tracker on fords website. Each dealers allocation and how many orders they have.

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