Dealer says in previewing stage, Ford chat doesn't..

[Old Ranchero]

Ok.. so ultimately previewing doesn't mean a damn thing. I could be scheduled next week or in 6 months... Depending on other variants.

sorry to say, but yeah pretty much. Sounds like you're looking/waiting for some sign it's really happening instead of uncertainty like many on here were. It's hard, but for your peace of mind, try not to micromanage the day-to-day of the process. I wasn't hurting for the truck or have a trade in value to consider or anything, so I just tried to focus on other stuff while on the roller coaster ride and dropped in on my dealer every couple week to chat. Eventually I got a text saying "we got a VIN!" Then it became REAL. Asked about build date and he got that too. As with most here, my build date got pushed back repeatedly, so more waiting. Basically, it will happen when it happens and try to be OK with that for your sanity.

Good Luck!

Sponsored

 

[es7129]

Ok.. so ultimately previewing doesn't mean a damn thing. I could be scheduled next week or in 6 months... Depending on other variants.

No, you know your dealership has an allocation for your truck. You’ll get scheduled before other trucks at your dealership with the same build. You’ll get built before other trucks with the same build stuck at a dealership without allocations.
Hypothetically, sure it could take a few weeks until your truck is buildable. That’s why you need to look at the constraints lists and gauge your odds.

 

[TpaTruck]

sorry to say, but yeah pretty much. Sounds like you're looking/waiting for some sign it's really happening instead of uncertainty like many on here were. It's hard, but for your peace of mind, try not to micromanage the day-to-day of the process. I wasn't hurting for the truck or have a trade in value to consider or anything, so I just tried to focus on other stuff while on the roller coaster ride and dropped in on my dealer every couple week to chat. Eventually I got a text saying "we got a VIN!" Then it became REAL. Asked about build date and he got that too. As with most here, my build date got pushed back repeatedly, so more waiting. Basically, it will happen when it happens and try to be OK with that for your sanity.

Good Luck!

I'm not stressing anything, there's just aspects that I didn't know or I'm learning through this process. It seems like some of the best information I get is from this truck club which is ridiculous. Ford should have better resources! I AM using a trade in and the longer this takes, the less I'll get for value on it. So yeah I am hoping to get the truck sooner than later. Thanks though.

 

[TpaTruck]

No, you know your dealership has an allocation for your truck. You’ll get scheduled before other trucks at your dealership with the same build. You’ll get built before other trucks with the same build stuck at a dealership without allocations.
Hypothetically, sure it could take a few weeks until your truck is buildable. That’s why you need to look at the constraints lists and gauge your odds.

Well I was hoping for a cut and dry answer. Since there isn't one, it's the same waiting game as before the previewing stage. That's fine, but that's why I made this post, to find out what I should expect. Thanks for the input.

 

[commadorebob]

Well I was hoping for a cut and dry answer. Since there isn't one, it's the same waiting game as before the previewing stage. That's fine, but that's why I made this post, to find out what I should expect. Thanks for the input.

Unfortunately, there is nothing cut and dry about this process. Some people on this forum lament the amount of speculation, but that is all we have to go off of. Even the dealerships don't know what Ford is doing half of the time. All we can do is look at what Ford is and has done and make educated guesses.

 

[TpaTruck]

Unfortunately, there is nothing cut and dry about this process. Some people on this forum lament the amount of speculation, but that is all we have to go off of. Even the dealerships don't know what Ford is doing half of the time. All we can do is look at what Ford is and has done and make educated guesses.

Everything you said is correct....unfortunately. The only reason I'm doing all this in the first place is because this is the cheapest pickup out there...and I'll make equity on my trade in. These few years of equity with covid are a rare time and probably the only time. After this, I will never deal with this kind of uncertainty process again!

 

[RockHoundTX]

Unfortunately, you are loosing about 1% of value per week on your trade-in (per Black Book data). The value of your trade-in is down by roughly 19% since June (but had gone up by about 50% during an 18 month period in 21/22). What happens to trade-ins over the next few months is a mystery but general consensus is to continue to see a .5%-1% drop per week through February. If Carvana finally goes bankrupt (very likely in the next month or so), that could have a huge impact. Some big investors (Group 1 Automotive) supposedly just bought $230M of Carvana's inventory at a price of 80% of wholesale (MMR). Some folks are also saying that some dealers are currently offering 15%-20% under wholesale for trade-ins (while other are saying that their local dealers are still paying a premium over wholesale. Go figure.). However, pretty safe to say that your trade-in is worth more today than it will be a month or two from now.

As others have said, both dealers and Ford customer service tend to use incorrect or conflicting terms. What you really want to know is if you are a Priority 2. If you are, you are at least in the game. Based on watching these forums for well over a year, your chances of getting a VIN within a certain time of going Priority 2 is roughly: 1 week = 20%, 2 weeks = 20%, 3-4 weeks = 20%, 5-8 weeks = 20%, 9+ weeks = 15%, never = 5%. If you have an Ecoboost, no constraint items, and used a larger dealer then tends to be at the quicker end of the spectrum. If you went with a smaller dealer (which may only get 1 allocation every few months) then at the end of the spectrum. My understanding is that if a dealer has 1 allocation it would not be uncommon for 2 or 3 vehicles to be moved to Priority 2 (or still be priority 2 from having been passed over previously).

 

[TpaTruck]

Unfortunately, you are loosing about 1% of value per week on your trade-in (per Black Book data). The value of your trade-in is down by roughly 19% since June (but had gone up by about 50% during an 18 month period in 21/22). What happens to trade-ins over the next few months is a mystery but general consensus is to continue to see a .5%-1% drop per week through February. If Carvana finally goes bankrupt (very likely in the next month or so), that could have a huge impact. Some big investors (Group 1 Automotive) supposedly just bought $230M of Carvana's inventory at a price of 80% of wholesale (MMR). Some folks are also saying that some dealers are currently offering 15%-20% under wholesale for trade-ins (while other are saying that their local dealers are still paying a premium over wholesale. Go figure.). However, pretty safe to say that your trade-in is worth more today than it will be a month or two from now.

As others have said, both dealers and Ford customer service tend to use incorrect or conflicting terms. What you really want to know is if you are a Priority 2. If you are, you are at least in the game. Based on watching these forums for well over a year, your chances of getting a VIN within a certain time of going Priority 2 is roughly: 1 week = 20%, 2 weeks = 20%, 3-4 weeks = 20%, 5-8 weeks = 20%, 9+ weeks = 15%, never = 5%. If you have an Ecoboost, no constraint items, and used a larger dealer then tends to be at the quicker end of the spectrum. If you went with a smaller dealer (which may only get 1 allocation every few months) then at the end of the spectrum. My understanding is that if a dealer has 1 allocation it would not be uncommon for 2 or 3 vehicles to be moved to Priority 2 (or still be priority 2 from having been passed over previously).

Thanks for the detailed reply. I went to CarMax one month ago and I was offered 34500 for my '22 Lariat that I paid just over 30k for (That's not including sales tax credit I'd get from new purchase because I am buying from my dealership, not CarMax, but they will match the offer). That's another couple thousand. My '23 order is about 31k. I'm using CarMax because carvana and three other sites I used all were less. I don't know how everyone likes carvana.. I got my worst offer from them.

If what you say occurs, I should still get well over 33k for trade in and whatever tax credit if I get my truck by April...which still gives me equity. I agree the trade-in values are going down, but I can't do anything except for hope my build gets done quickly. I don't know though, the Maverick demand is extremely high so I remain optimistic the values won't go down much.

I ordered from a large dealership so I'm confident it'll be soon. All the 22s are cleared from them too. My priority code isn't down yet, but being in previewing was a change as of yesterday. We'll see!

 

[gte105u]

Thanks for the detailed reply. I went to CarMax one month ago and I was offered 34500 for my '22 Lariat that I paid just over 30k for (That's not including sales tax credit I'd get from new purchase because I am buying from my dealership, not CarMax, but they will match the offer). That's another couple thousand. My '23 order is about 31k. I'm using CarMax because carvana and three other sites I used all were less. I don't know how everyone likes carvana.. I got my worst offer from them.

If what you say occurs, I should still get well over 33k for trade in and whatever tax credit if I get my truck by April...which still gives me equity. I agree the trade-in values are going down, but I can't do anything except for hope my build gets done quickly. I don't know though, the Maverick demand is extremely high so I remain optimistic the values won't go down much.

I ordered from a large dealership so I'm confident it'll be soon. All the 22s are cleared from them too. My priority code isn't down yet, but being in previewing was a change as of yesterday. We'll see!

I'm confused by your plan. So you're trading in a Lariat Maverick. You say you'll get equity, but that's not the right term. You have equity if you owe less than it's worth. You will be profitable if you sell for more than you buy.

Presumably you currently have equity in your truck. Indications are by April very few if anyone will pay more for used than new. So you are going to trade in a Lariat that has already taken its initial depreciation hit for...? An XLT or lower spec Lariat? You'll take another hit in value doing this. While you may get cash out of it you're new truck will be worth less than what you are trading in. What am I missing here? Your deal just seems strange.

 

[TpaTruck]

I'm confused by your plan. So you're trading in a Lariat Maverick. You say you'll get equity, but that's not the right term. You have equity if you owe less than it's worth. You will be profitable if you sell for more than you buy.

Presumably you currently have equity in your truck. Indications are by April very few if anyone will pay more for used than new. So you are going to trade in a Lariat that has already taken its initial depreciation hit for...? An XLT or lower spec Lariat? You'll take another hit in value doing this. While you may get cash out of it you're new truck will be worth less than what you are trading in. What am I missing here? Your deal just seems strange.

Wow... Nitpick words much? I think it was obvious I meant I'll make money... You can use whatever term you like.

The depreciation hit you speak of still isn't even depreciation. It doesn't become depreciation until the value of the truck is less than I bought it for. It's not going to be under 31k in a few months...

The math is easy. Paid less than 31k for current truck...Will get at least that much for trade in, plus over 2k sales tax credit on next truck, which will be about 32k. I profit, get a new truck, get the color I really want, one more year warranty, 10k less miles.

Only reason I'm getting an XLT is because the lariat doesn't come in EB FWD anymore. Only thing I'm missing out on is the push start button.

Sooo tell me where the confusion is...?

 

[gte105u]

Wow... Nitpick words much? I think it was obvious I meant I'll make money... You can use whatever term you like.

The depreciation hit you speak of still isn't even depreciation. It doesn't become depreciation until the value of the truck is less than I bought it for. It's not going to be under 31k in a few months...

The math is easy. Paid less than 31k for current truck...Will get at least that much for trade in, plus over 2k sales tax credit on next truck, which will be about 32k. I profit, get a new truck, get the color I really want, one more year warranty, 10k less miles.

Only reason I'm getting an XLT is because the lariat doesn't come in EB FWD anymore. Only thing I'm missing out on is the push start button.

Sooo tell me where the confusion is...?

You're not going to get what you paid for it in a few months.

 

[TpaTruck]

You're not going to get what you paid for it in a few months.

That's your opinion. I had hoped to have already gotten the new truck and done the trade in.... But yes time is against me. I feel that the popularity of the truck will still keep it pretty strong for a trade in. Worst case scenario if I broke even with the trade-in and the sales tax credit, it's still a better idea to buy new truck for all the other reasons I mentioned. Basically I would have driven this truck for free for about 18 months, give or take.

 

[gte105u]

That's your opinion. I had hoped to have already gotten the new truck and done the trade in.... But yes time is against me. I feel that the popularity of the truck will still keep it pretty strong for a trade in. Worst case scenario if I broke even with the trade-in and the sales tax credit, it's still a better idea to buy new truck for all the other reasons I mentioned. Basically I would have driven this truck for free for about 18 months, give or take.

Fair enough. I don't think you'll break even in a couple months, but as you aptly stated it's my opinion. Good news is there is really no risk to you. If you can't get what you want on your current ride then you just don't buy the new one.

 

[B2000]

From what I have read on this site it means Ford is "thinking about" building your truck. So that means some of the cogs are in place- they probably have the bits you ordered and your dealer probably has an allocation or more.

 

[TpaTruck]

That is correct. I started this process when my truck had about $7-8k equity. Unfortunately things are going down and the new truck build is taking time, so all I can do is see where things are at when the new truck gets done.

Only reason I didn't trade it in sooner for another vehicles because the car market blew up and that equity would have been eaten up by inflated car prices......and I wanted to stay with the Maverick.

Sponsored