Ford stock downgraded = improved Maverick chances???

[Hot Runr Guy]

The base price of the Maverick has gone up about $3,000 from from the $19;995 original price.

The base price you referenced is now $22,195, a $2200 increase, and the base XL now includes cruise control.
What am I missing? HRG

Sponsored

 

[AngloSoup]

Hopefully a recession means less demand for the Mavericks, but if anything, their attractive price point might bring in more buyers who need a cheaper car. Who knows.

I imagine demand will go up since it's still the cheapest truck. Although "cheap" is relative when used ones on the dealer lots around here are selling for $39k.

 

[RanCheeto]

The only "overstock" I can imagine would be the 10's of thousands of nearly finished F150-250 trucks parked and waiting for a final computer chip(s). It will get harder to sell 2022 models in 2023 as production returns to 'normal' (hopefully) in the next year.

Ford has a great line up right now and a lot of potential. I own some Ford stock, yes it would have been nice to sell for a profit, but I am happy to have it at a low and expect it will only go up. I don't retire for another four years, so I'm happy to let it ride.

As we work toward an electric future new bidirectional charging, new lithium and cobalt mines in the US, new US chip plants will only bolster auto manufacturers who are ready to go.

 

[LSchicago]

With the current inflation Pressure on raw material to manufacture consumer goods (including Maverick trucks) is driving prices up which will drive consumers out of the market. If we are honest we purchased a Maverick because of the low cost for a good looking truck. The base price of the Maverick has gone up about $3,000 from from the $19;995 original price. The pricing structure of the different packages have changed. These changes are all cost driven by Ford. Econ 101 says when prices go up demand will go down and this is the box Ford finds itself in. if you listen to the news inflation is stripping us of buying power because income is not going up as fast as inflation. For those of us who lived through the 70’s we have lived through a high inflation period. this round 2 for us.

As bad as 1974 was for inflation, 1980 was worse. We see high inflation about every 10 years. Only time since 1960 it was negative was in 2009. 2015 was super low too at .12% rate. 1970, 74, 80, and 90 were all worse than 2021 was. 1974 & 1980 always seemed the worst to me.

 

[gwrace14651]

Dow Jones Futures Fall: Nasdaq Hits New Bear Market Low for 2022. Hang on for the ride

 

[Retired]

Maverick demand is irrrelevent if Ford can't build them. There will be an oversupply of most vehicles as recession worsens. People having trouble putting food on the table are not looking at new vehicles.

 

[the_mad_end]

If there's an over supply, it won't be because of increased production. If anything, I think UBS is anticipating consumer demand to steeply drop off as the economy worsens. Unfortunately, I don't think any of this will help Ford produce Mavericks faster. Especially if there's a railway worker strike. That's just going to make supply chain issues worse.

 

[Joe Kelly]

The base price you referenced is now $22,195, a $2200 increase, and the base XL now includes cruise control.
What am I missing? HRG

I said about!

 

[jtpc2021]

Today Ford stock was downgraded to a sell:

Ford stock is now a ‘sell’ at UBS as an oversupply problem looms

Maybe an increased chance at the Maverick I ordered... Here are the highlights from the Market Watch article link above:

" Shares of Ford Motor Co. were hit hard Monday by UBS analyst Patrick Hummel’s recommendation that investors sell, as the auto industry is facing a worrisome U-turn from undersupply to oversupply. "​

​

"“We think it will only take 3-6 months for the auto industry to end up in oversupply, which will put an abrupt end to a 3-year phase of unprecedented OEM [original equipment manufacturer] pricing power and margins,” Hummel wrote in a note to clients."​

​

" Hummel noted that Ford has already warned about having more vehicles in inventory than expected, and above payments to suppliers running about $1 billion higher than projected, so he sees little margin left for negative surprises in terms of fourth-quarter deliveries and supply costs. "​

What do you think?
Have the odds improved?
Will the dealer additional markups shrink?

doubt they are linked. The stock fell because of issues making enough products. I don’t see how a falling stock price will mean Ford can now churn out trucks at a quicker pace.

 

[Impetus19]

Technically, during a recession is when you buy auto stocks. If anything, this guy is late to the party. Should have been selling already as Ford is already down 40% on the year.

It's a tough call but Fords stock hit $2 during the last recession.... Consumer staples are likely a safer play.

 

[commadorebob]

It's a tough call but Fords stock hit $2 during the last recession.... Consumer staples are likely a safer play.

Right, but if you can invest long term, buy when Ford crashes. People will still need cars during and after the recession. The P/E ratio is what matters. Buy when Ford is below the curve to profit when the economy inevitably recovers.

 

[jibbersmav]

A lot depends on what is meant by "oversupply"!! Undersupply leads to exorbitant ADM's. Undersupply leads to people flipping for a profit. Undersupply is going to end for higher price models like the F-15- because of reasons posted earlier in this thread. I also believe Ford has the capacity to produce more than the 86K Mavericks ordered plus the rollovers. This will be especially true of models without constraints and EB's. If the reports on the percentage ordered that were hybrids are correct, FORD has lots of capacity to build EB's for lots of stock orders. We will not see large quantities sitting on car lots, but I am guessing there will be sufficient numbers of stock EB's to get us back to MSRP on those stock orders. Capacity for more than 30 or 40K is there if order banks do not reopen and people do not change their orders to EB. By fall of next year, you may flip a hybrid for a profit; EB's not so much. One thing about it, if I am wrong, it will not be the first time!!

Has nothing to do with capacity.

 

[jibbersmav]

doubt they are linked. The stock fell because of issues making enough products. I don’t see how a falling stock price will mean Ford can now churn out trucks at a quicker pace.

The theory is that falling stock price = looming recession = less people buying vehicles = better chances of getting one. Nobody is claiming Ford will churn out trucks at a quicker pace.

 

[Chicolini]

If anything, this guy is late to the party. Should have been selling already as Ford is already down 40% on the year.

I am always amazed when stock analysts have a buy or hold rating, as a stock falls. Then when the price gets real low, they tell you to sell.

In my experience, an astute investor will buy low and sell high. Not the other way round.

I am very impressed with the design and quality of my new Fords.

Ford has a low P/E ratio and a 5% dividend yield. I bought some shares of Ford today. I think a lot of people will still need to drive even if there is a depression.

 

[jtpc2021]

The theory is that falling stock price = looming recession = less people buying vehicles = better chances of getting one. Nobody is claiming Ford will churn out trucks at a quicker pace.

I’m sure a financial downturn will slow down frivolous spending, but it won’t cancel out the need for vehicle purchases completely. The Maverick being entry level pricing (still in the range of entry level corolla and civic) won’t see massive amounts of people cancelling their orders.
Luxury purchases (like someone upgrading their G55 to a G65) might be put on hold if someone is effected by the the stock market.

Sponsored