MY22 Rollover Percentage

[rlhdweman]

For the 2022 MY, trucks produced in 2021 totaled 25,880. So far through June there has been 43,533 produced in 2022. July and October will only have a few thousand each……say a total of 4000. September has been announced as 4000. IF August would be 7500, the grand total of 22 MY Mavs would be close to 85,000. I think a rollover number of 20-25,000 seems reasonable.

This amount would, ordinarily, be about 3 months production for Hermosillo. That pushes a LOT of 23 MY orders out a ways.

You missed one month in your totals, so far I come up with 76952 produced, a couple months had over 9000 production, we have seen people with VINs in the mid 90's on this site, so we have July, August, September & part of October to finish 22MY, which if supplies are available they should produce the majority of orders. I'm betting less than 10,000 roll over orders, & for all those who are waiting I hope it's less than that.

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[Captain]

You missed one month in your totals, so far I come up with 76952 produced, a couple months had over 9000 production, we have seen people with VINs in the mid 90's on this site, so we have July, August, September & part of October to finish 22MY, which if supplies are available they should produce the majority of orders. I'm betting less than 10,000 roll over orders, & for all those who are waiting I hope it's less than that.

Don’t forget some of those VIN were sent to South America.

 

[The Weatherman]

My dealer is telling me my 22 will automatically roll over to a 23.

You might want to review this Episode from the Fordvideoguy.

https://www.mavericktruckclub.com/f...ing-i-know-about-maverick-22-23-orders.17338/

 

[NJBob]

I would say a good majority of the orders will get reordered in 2023. Many that already have gotten something else will just take the order to flip for a profit (thus sticking it to Ford). While unethical, I wouldn't be surprised either if dealers resubmit them as 23 orders regardless if the customer requests it so make a profit themselves. I know the dealers have a quota to meet, but I could see them doing it to a handful of orders for straight profits.

I think there will be a good number of later non-constraint orders that get built to close out 22s also.

Either way, I have two late October orders so I think I should "hopefully" be close to the front of the queue when its all said and done. There are a lot of October orders getting scheduled now so I imagine there won't be more than 300-400 orders ahead of me at the beginning. Then again, watch me get my order July 2023.

The way I understand it. Your Order will be a new 23 order. You will be put in the line with all the others regardless of when you ordered your 22. I sure hope not. It sounds like Ford has put the onus on the customer to get this right. I guarantee it will be a huge mess.

 

[dls235]

I agree. But as a counter-point, there is a percentage of current orders that will bring the numbers down a bit for various reasons.

1. Folks who are fed up with Ford and won't reorder on principle, even if they still wish they could have a Maverick. Stick it to Ford!
2. Folks who have already moved on to purchase something else since they could not wait as long as it has been taking. We see these people post on here all the time.
3. Folks who have no clue about ANY of this and don't know to contact their dealer to order a 2023. They think things will just roll over automatically. They don't even realize the model year is ending. They did not know they were supposed to remove constraints. Hell......I know there are some DEALERS who probably don't even understand the process. And those clueless dealers are probably some of the same dealers who don't communicate well with their customers.

All of those situations above will result in the 2022 orders being canceled as soon as Ford balances out the model year. If we go with the 20% "rollover" percentage from Long McArthur as the average, what percentage could we assign to folks who don't plan to go thru the motions of "rolling" theirs to 2023? Perhaps when the dust settles we find that only something like half of the unscheduled 2022 orders get ordered again as a 2023.

I myself could not wait. Toyota offered me a great deal on the Tacoma so I pulled the trigger. I decided to lease, figure in three years time, hopefully there will be more hybrid options out there in the mid/small truck segment.

Best of luck to all of you patient folks out there!

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