Here's my theory. Like it or not

[maningr]

With such a blank statement without context, without any reasoning, you could have just said that Ford is only going to build black Mavericks.
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Ok. First off, I don't KNOW anything. Second, Ford is going to do what Ford is going to do and I'm not saying they ARE doing this.

Chips are the biggest issue. I would venture to guess that Hybrids are the most intensive chip users. I don't know how many chips each particular trim uses. But let's make an assumption that each Eco needs 2 chips and each Hybrid needs 4 chips. These numbers don't include trim. Looking at just that, you could make 2 eco's for each hybrid. That may be enough to put that plant at desired capacity with Eco's, or half desired capacity with Hybrids. Under that analysis, it would be smart logistics to run Eco's if they know a high number of chips are coming at a later date.

What we also don't know is WHICH chip is in shortage. I highly doubt that every chip used is the same chip. The shortage may very well be on a hybrid specific chip. If that's the case, then again, it would be smart to focus on Eco's.

Many of the Eco's have been built already. I'm guessing that we are now looking at a 20% to 80% remaining builds Eco's to Hybrids. As we look at where we are in the cycle, (5-7 months of build time left), that's about 1 month of production for the Eco's if that was the only thing being built. This also plays in to some of the other commodity shortages that are occurring.

That's my answer. And again, I really don't know anything. But I could see this as a scenario.

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[g1zstar]

It just doesn’t really bring much value to the table to ponder the scenarios.

does it get your truck here faster ?
Instead of spending your time pondering….Let’s all call ford on Monday and compare notes on the real reasons

even then, your truck won’t be here faster.. but we can sleep comfortably knowing exactly why…

The thing is, there's different personalities. Say looking for a solution vs just talking about the problem.
I kinda agree that this thread is pointless but it really doesn't hurt, if people enjoy it they'll post in it, if not it'll sink to the bottom of the forum and stay dead. Gotta let different people do their thing.

I'd say ideally this would be under general since it's kinda nonsensical instead of the ordering subsection but it really isn't a big deal, especially since these two sections are generally more active so it'll die quicker.

 

[pa-outdoorsman]

[QUOTE="
I haven't been on this forum very long but if I've learned anything it's that trying to make sense of how Ford selects orders to build will make you lose your mind. My advice is keep your sanity and find other things to worry about until your truck gets built.

“It is largely determined by (1) dealer allocation, (2) order priority, and (3) component availability and (4) production capacity (part shortages not withstanding).

Placing Your Order at the Dealership:

Two (major) things affect your order once your dealer enters it into the system: priority order code and dealer allocation.

Priority Code:

Ford only schedules so many orders (from dealers) each week. As a result, each dealership has to determine what order (sequence) their truck orders should be picked up in. A holding queue for that dealership, if you will, with all the truck orders in a single line from which only one truck at a time can be released, is needed. Think of it as thread off of a spool or a print job from a printer queue.

To do this, the dealer uses/assigns a priority code from 10 to 99 to each order. If your dealer prints your order or shows you the screen, you'll see it on there.

While 10 is a lower numerical number, it is the highest priority order code a dealer can assign. Subsequently, while 99 is a higher numerical value, it is the lowest priority. Think of a priority order code the same way you would think of a college football player being "ranked" for an upcoming draft (1st is highest ranked, then 2nd, then 3rd, etc.). Until the orders are selected for scheduling by Ford, the priority order codes only apply internally at each dealership. Meaning, this is the order in which that the dealership will "release" the customer orders in when Ford asks for them. This allows the dealership to prioritize certain trucks AHEAD of other trucks, regardless of when the customer actually placed the order. That's why it pays to get the highest priority order code (lowest number) assigned to your order. Dealerships often (but not always) assign lower priority order codes (higher numbers) to stock orders while assigning higher priority order codes (lower numbers) to retail orders so you (a retail buyer placing an order) get your truck faster, which means they sell a truck faster.

Before moving on, note that while the highest priority order code a DEALERSHIP can assign is 10, Ford Motor Company (the manufacturer) can assign a priority order code of 01 to 09. Essentially, Ford can decide if any particular dealer orders should be prioritized higher than "most" others. They often use higher priority to replace vehicles damaged during transport.

So at this point, we have a list of truck orders for each dealer and the orders are lined up in the sequence that the dealer wants them pulled for scheduling based on their priority order code. I believe tiebreakers (same priority order code for more than one truck) are determined by the date/time the order was entered).

Allocation:

Ford allows each dealer to order a certain number of F150's per week. This is called dealer allocation. The number of trucks a dealership is allocated differs from dealer to dealer. One dealer may have an allocation of 10 trucks per week, while another might have 50 per week. Ford determines allocation for each dealer, largely depending on how many trucks that dealership is moving.

Keep allocation in mind for later.

How Orders are Picked From Order System (from the dealers) FOR Scheduling:

On WED/THU of each week, the Ford planning system reviews all the orders at the dealerships to select which ones it is going to accept into the system for purposes of scheduling them to be built. It does NOT just take ALL orders and schedule them for build.

Which sequence the orders are selected to come into the planning system is based on a combination of (a) round-robin dealership selection process (think of it as teams participating in the NFL draft) and (b) allocation (how many TOTAL orders (aka players) a single dealer can select during the entire draft (for the entire week).

Here's the process, at very high level:

Think of the selection process working like the "draft" process for major sports: Each team (dealer) gets ONE choice per "round" to send ONE order for planning, just like each team gets to select ONE college player per round.

Round 1: Each dealership gets ONE choice. For each dealership, the truck with the highest priority order code (lowest number) within that dealership is selected. Once every dealer has had the opportunity to send ONE order for planning, its starts back over. Same order of teams, just a new round.

Round 2: Each dealer, again, gets ONE choice. They send the truck order that had the next highest priority order code (lowest number) in their queue.

Round 3, 4, 5 ... : It goes from round to round allowing each dealer to get ONE pick per round, and each dealer picking their highest priority customer order left in the queue.

Now here's the tricky part: Remember dealer allocation?

Dealers don't just get to keep submitting orders until every order they have has been sent for scheduling. This is largely due to capacity and material planning.

Each week, each dealer will only have orders picked for scheduling until the dealer's number of orders selected reaches their allocation. For example, if a dealership's allocation is 10 trucks per week, that dealership will "cut off" from having more orders selected for scheduling starting in "Round 11". That dealership is done participating in the draft for that week.

After allocation is met and a dealer is cut off for the week, the orders left over in that dealership's internal queue must now wait until NEXT week for the same process to begin.

The very next WED/THU, the same process starts again: Round-robin, highest priority, next highest priority, etc., until allocation is met for that week, then no more for that dealership again until the following week.

This is why it, if you're trying to order a vehicle that is in high demand, you should work with a dealer that has a very large allocation. They can order more trucks per week. It' less likely that your order will get held over until the following week (or weeks).

Allocation is why some people on here have been waiting for several MONTHS just to see their truck get scheduled to be built, while other guys ordered much LATER, yet their trucks are already scheduled, built, or delivered.

How Picked Orders are Scheduled for Build AFTER Ford Selects Them Each Week:

Remember when I said that priority order code only applies internally? Well, that now changes. Now, the priority order code is a factor in determining which orders get scheduled before other orders across all dealership orders.

Let's say that 15,000 orders for F150 trucks are selected to be scheduled for build. The order with the highest priority (lowest number) gets scheduled first. Lots of trucks have the same priority code, so the process generally follows a pattern of date/time the order was entered (selected during the "draft", which was based on the date/time the orders were entered). It's actually more involved then that, but that's it in a nutshell.

Vehicles are first assigned to be built during a certain week (shows as a Monday date). As it gets closer to that week, the vehicles are assigned to specific build DATES (the day of). All of this is based on (and sometimes is affected later by) a variable plethora of variables, including material planning/component and part availability, plant production capacity and rates, the labor issues or weather causing delays or shortages, etc., etc..

Understand that trucks are not built in the order of the VIN number. A VIN is assigned before a truck is built. There are many factors that affect when a truck will be assigned to be built, but suffice it to say, they aren't in VIN order.

As a consequence, the assembly plant needs a way to keep track of what order they WILL build the trucks in. If they didn't, they would not be able to ensure that the RIGHT parts are at the RIGHT places at the RIGHT times. Today, many components are shipped to the assembly plants either sequences (a specific component is going to be installed on one EXACT VIN) or they are shipped "just in time". The latter simply allows Ford to maintain a much smaller component inventory level. If you go back 15-20 years or more, they used to keep much more inventory on hand -- sometimes WEEKS. Carrying inventory costs money, and JIT reduces this cost.

How they keep track of the build order is by what is called a BLEND number. Actually, it's a combination of a BLEND number and a ROTATION number, but that's not important.

A blend number is nothing more than bank of numbers assigned in numerical order to a vehicle when it's scheduled. For the F150, it's ~10K numbers from 0001 to 9999 The trucks are built in order of blend number. 3456 is after 3455 and before 3457. Occasionally, an odd blend number will come along. If a vehicle build is put on hold at the last minute, simply re-insert it (same blend number) somewhere later.”

some say they are still using fifo for Maverick orders. But granger has people waiting 15 months on broncos. So allocation might be back to relevant.

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Yes but retail orders default to order priority 19, and many dealers never change them. So, as far as I can tell, that means when Ford looks at the orders from that dealer they are all the same and Ford may as likely pull an order that was scheduled last week as thty do one that was scheduled last summer.

 

[maningr]

Yes but retail orders default to order priority 19, and many dealers never change them. So, as far as I can tell, that means when Ford looks at the orders from that dealer they are all the same and Ford may as likely pull an order that was scheduled last week as thty do one that was scheduled last summer.

Within a singular dealer, the earlier order should go first. But yes, ACROSS dealers, what you say is very likely. Dealer#1 may have 30 orders outstanding. Dealer#2 may have 1 order, placed last week. The one ordered last week will almost certainly get built before #15 at Dealer#1 is built.

 

[pa-outdoorsman]

Within a singular dealer, the earlier order should go first. But yes, ACROSS dealers, what you say is very likely. Dealer#1 may have 30 orders outstanding. Dealer#2 may have 1 order, placed last week. The one ordered last week will almost certainly get built before #15 at Dealer#1 is built.

SHOULD go first. But won't necessarily depending Ford's needs. For example, if they want to build EcoBoosts they may pull my order from my dealer's queue even though numerous hybrid orders may be ahead of me in line. Or particular options may get passed over. You get my point; there are just SO MANY VARIABLES at play that it is impossible to say with any certainty whether you'll be selected this week, next month or in August.

 

[T McG]

My theory… but keeps getting deleted… 30-40,000+ Ford confirmed “orders” will not get built for 2022. I’ve heard 85,000 total orders but I believe there are quite a bit more.

 

[Red Ryder]

I honestly couldn’t agree more.

this forum is conspiracy theory central as people are so bored waiting on trucks.

I hope we get past this. I’m most interested in the technical contributors who are looking for ways to make the trucks better.

No kidding, I got a room full of electronics I bought in December for an audio upgrade I thought I would be doing in short order.

As far as conspiracy theories, the natives are restless and there's no effort from above (Ford) to quiet them. It's bound to get ugly.

 

[SkeeterB]

Just glad I was able to buy at MSRP off the lot or I would still be waiting with you guys. I've been in the waiting/tracking game before with three MINIs I ordered and tracked. Fastest was 4 months and the slowest about 6 months. Good news was I mostly had the previous MINI while waiting.

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