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Issues with Tariffs, both Mexico AND Canada [ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICS; MEMBERS ALREADY BANNED FOR IT]

flipd4mavs

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Ask people. How they did in 2008 when they pulled all of their money out of the market. I know people that did. Remember the world came to an end with the Great Recession?
Dow was 8000 in 2008. Today it’s 44,000

Just sayin. DON’t PULL YOUR MONEY OUT.
But since you are near retirement, you should not be an aggressive investor either.
After it happened, a coworker asked what do we do now? I said BUY. Let's just say I have not regretted it since.
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SLINGSHOT

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Looks like someone has been watching too much Jake Broe. 🤣

TLDR; Jake Broe did a
Recent segment on US trade policy, tariffs and its impacts on the Ukraine war and included this specific Nov 1988 Reagan speech. Pretty esoteric without context.
Never heard of him. I'm over 12, so I don't do FaceCrap, TickTack, or blogs.
 

First Sergeant

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you should go work for a hedge fund if you think you can beat the S&P500. they'd love to have you.
Not too hard to beat S&P, depending on how you look at it. I beat 1 year earnings most years, except this past year (2024) missed by 2%, not bad. But I never care about 1 year returns, I'm pushing 70 and even with conservative stocks in my brokerage account and that account does better than my company 401K. I beat the S&P on 3 and 5 year returns with no problem, usually 2-5 %, consistently for last 5 years. I reinvest all dividends and at this time have taken no money out of either account. I stay away (somewhat) from Nasdaq, bounces around and way too volatile for me.
 

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sprubs

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Not too hard to beat S&P, depending on how you look at it. I beat 1 year earnings most years, except this past year (2024) missed by 2%, not bad. But I never care about 1 year returns, I'm pushing 70 and even with conservative stocks in my brokerage account and that account does better than my company 401K. I beat the S&P on 3 and 5 year returns with no problem, usually 2-5 %, consistently for last 5 years. I reinvest all dividends and at this time have taken no money out of either account. I stay away (somewhat) from Nasdaq, bounces around and way too volatile for me.
Def go work for a hedge fund because you're doing better than they are on average. You could be making big bucks. To be clear, I think you are either mistaken, Cherry picking certain years or are just full of it. Pretty much every hedge fund is trying to do what you claim to be pulling off but none have managed it for long.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/01/09/you-can-shred-the-average-hedge-fund-by-doing-basi/
 
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MakinDoForNow

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Not too hard to beat S&P, depending on how you look at it. I beat 1 year earnings most years, except this past year (2024) missed by 2%, not bad. But I never care about 1 year returns, I'm pushing 70 and even with conservative stocks in my brokerage account and that account does better than my company 401K. I beat the S&P on 3 and 5 year returns with no problem, usually 2-5 %, consistently for last 5 years. I reinvest all dividends and at this time have taken no money out of either account. I stay away (somewhat) from Nasdaq, bounces around and way too volatile for me.
My 77 year old brother has us all beat. (Probably). He was in the Navy and when he got out went to work in 1969. He is still with the same employer. When he got the job he purchased the "homestead" she inherited from her father for $10k. He still lives there but built a 4 car garage on rear of lot. He is drawing retirement from his ",legacy plan" (can draw retirement when age plus years work equals 80). He draws retirement from his SS after he turned 70. Plus his 401k MRD with employer match he still participates in that started when legacy plan was dropped. He works 4/10's and goes to garage sales Friday & Saturday purchases and resales at several consignment stores picking up $800 to $1500 per week. Has been known to purchase entire garage sales putting anything he didn't want into his wife's 2nd Saturday of month garage sale. She was known for her clothing specials price per piece drops the more pieces you buy. I have seen a starting pile 4' tall 10' diameter. He told me this last Xmas that his stock portfolio has recovered over twice the $1.2 million covid drop. My sister says he has at least 80 lbs of gold garage sale jewelry that he hasn't bothered to sell. When asked why he doesn't actually retire he replays. I really like my job and every year I work my Retirement monthly $ increases.
 

First Sergeant

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My 77 year old brother has us all beat. (Probably). He was in the Navy and when he got out went to work in 1969. He is still with the same employer. When he got the job he purchased the "homestead" she inherited from her father for $10k. He still lives there but built a 4 car garage on rear of lot. He is drawing retirement from his ",legacy plan" (can draw retirement when age plus years work equals 80). He draws retirement from his SS after he turned 70. Plus his 401k MRD with employer match he still participates in that started when legacy plan was dropped. He works 4/10's and goes to garage sales Friday & Saturday purchases and resales at several consignment stores picking up $800 to $1500 per week. Has been known to purchase entire garage sales putting anything he didn't want into his wife's 2nd Saturday of month garage sale. She was known for her clothing specials price per piece drops the more pieces you buy. I have seen a starting pile 4' tall 10' diameter. He told me this last Xmas that his stock portfolio has recovered over twice the $1.2 million covid drop. My sister says he has at least 80 lbs of gold garage sale jewelry that he hasn't bothered to sell. When asked why he doesn't actually retire he replays. I really like my job and every year I work my Retirement monthly $ increases.
Sounds like he got it figured out fairly young. I think if you enjoy a job and want to keep going, by all means do it! I was pretty tired at 59. Joined Army out of high school and retired from it in 20 years, at 39. But got on with railroad and they paid a lot more than the Army for sure. So, some folks don't know, but you start drawing a retirement from the military the day you retire. So I took that retirement check and invested 75% of it each month while working at the railroad for 20 years. Was debt free somewhere around 52-53. Kept investing even more to my own brokerage account. Company matching 401K was good, Buffet bought us up and paid us for Burlington Northern stock, had us roll it to Berkshire (B) shares. Man, good stock! I like and own Costco (my favorite), General Dynamics (hate war, but love the cash), United Health Care, and two Vanguard Funds, One S&P Index type fund, the other a balanced one. All in a nice trust with a will, so when the wifey and I go "Tango Uniform" Kids and grandkids will be happy campers. They say "you can't take it with you", but wasn't there a Hollywood type or someone in the music business got buried in a Cadillac full of cash? Hahaha. Might be a long drive to hell, hope the air conditioner was working!
 

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in the mean while imports set an all time record today
 
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Just sayin. DON’t PULL YOUR MONEY OUT.
Speaking as an economics professor, there are very few worse things you can do than pull money out after a crash. (turning it to cash, throwing it in a barrel, and lighting it on fire comes to mind . . .)

The bad news is already built into the price. It's already accounted for. Selling simply locks in your loss.


He told me this last Xmas that his stock portfolio has recovered over twice the $1.2 million covid drop.
Sounds about right. Looking at my spreadsheet, as of yesterday's close, I'm up 101.51% from my pre-covid high, and 186.98% from the covid low. I've also been drawing on it since 4Q23.

Note that simply beating the S&P won't cut it for a hedge fund. They typically help themselves to 2% of gross assets plus 20% of gains. Each year. (And, no, their performance as a group doesn't beat fidelity and vanguard actively managed funds.

Some funds have been consistently beat the S&P over the long term. I don't consider shorter periods than 10 years when evaluating funds, although I check to see that shorter term results are consistent. My five year average for full years, including the turkeys, is just barely shy of 15%; the 10 year is a. bit over 12.

OK, it helps that I bought a chunk of FDGRX well before it closed to new investors. :ROFLMAO: They closed it in 2006, but it
s a "slow shutdown"--kind of hard to argue with given it's performance (19.19% average compound ten year return). It's kind of swollen its share of my portfolio,

Anyway, if you're looking at long term (and mine was planned on a 75 year horizon; I'm in the second half and now stretching it to contemplate my grandchildren's retirements), the best strategy is to leave it there and not react to news. Trim turkeys every few years, but cautiously. Don't try to pop in and out. Don't pay commissions or 12b1 fees.
 

MakinDoForNow

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Speaking as an economics professor, there are very few worse things you can do than pull money out after a crash. (turning it to cash, throwing it in a barrel, and lighting it on fire comes to mind . . .)

The bad news is already built into the price. It's already accounted for. Selling simply locks in your loss.




Sounds about right. Looking at my spreadsheet, as of yesterday's close, I'm up 101.51% from my pre-covid high, and 186.98% from the covid low. I've also been drawing on it since 4Q23.

Note that simply beating the S&P won't cut it for a hedge fund. They typically help themselves to 2% of gross assets plus 20% of gains. Each year. (And, no, their performance as a group doesn't beat fidelity and vanguard actively managed funds.

Some funds have been consistently beat the S&P over the long term. I don't consider shorter periods than 10 years when evaluating funds, although I check to see that shorter term results are consistent. My five year average for full years, including the turkeys, is just barely shy of 15%; the 10 year is a. bit over 12.

OK, it helps that I bought a chunk of FDGRX well before it closed to new investors. :ROFLMAO: They closed it in 2006, but it
s a "slow shutdown"--kind of hard to argue with given it's performance (19.19% average compound ten year return). It's kind of swollen its share of my portfolio,

Anyway, if you're looking at long term (and mine was planned on a 75 year horizon; I'm in the second half and now stretching it to contemplate my grandchildren's retirements), the best strategy is to leave it there and not react to news. Trim turkeys every few years, but cautiously. Don't try to pop in and out. Don't pay commissions or 12b1 fees.
My #1 "shoulda done that but didn't" = mid 70's scraped $7600 together and was going to buy 200 shares Berkshire Hathaway went across street from work to place order and found out Merrill Lynch had a commission surcharge in effect and there was no way I was going to pay $59.00 to buy 200 shares. Then Berkshire didn't move much for 2-3 years and I moved on..... I did pop in and out of Enron several times with my "roll dice" allocation. Was in cash account so had to wait the days for funds to clear to next pop.... Did manage to triple that measly allocation in three weeks. I did resist the Madoff investment deal but was really tempted since he could always manage to recover the dips but it was obvious that something was wrong since he could always pull it out 100% of the time.... for years....
 

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Speaking as an economics professor, there are very few worse things you can do than pull money out after a crash. (turning it to cash, throwing it in a barrel, and lighting it on fire comes to mind . . .)

The bad news is already built into the price. It's already accounted for. Selling simply locks in your loss.




Sounds about right. Looking at my spreadsheet, as of yesterday's close, I'm up 101.51% from my pre-covid high, and 186.98% from the covid low. I've also been drawing on it since 4Q23.

Note that simply beating the S&P won't cut it for a hedge fund. They typically help themselves to 2% of gross assets plus 20% of gains. Each year. (And, no, their performance as a group doesn't beat fidelity and vanguard actively managed funds.

Some funds have been consistently beat the S&P over the long term. I don't consider shorter periods than 10 years when evaluating funds, although I check to see that shorter term results are consistent. My five year average for full years, including the turkeys, is just barely shy of 15%; the 10 year is a. bit over 12.

OK, it helps that I bought a chunk of FDGRX well before it closed to new investors. :ROFLMAO: They closed it in 2006, but it
s a "slow shutdown"--kind of hard to argue with given it's performance (19.19% average compound ten year return). It's kind of swollen its share of my portfolio,

Anyway, if you're looking at long term (and mine was planned on a 75 year horizon; I'm in the second half and now stretching it to contemplate my grandchildren's retirements), the best strategy is to leave it there and not react to news. Trim turkeys every few years, but cautiously. Don't try to pop in and out. Don't pay commissions or 12b1 fees.
I agree, like my Vanguard stuff. I have also taken the long view and have never bailed out yet, though some years I want to puke. Got friends who track things daily, monthl
Speaking as an economics professor, there are very few worse things you can do than pull money out after a crash. (turning it to cash, throwing it in a barrel, and lighting it on fire comes to mind . . .)

The bad news is already built into the price. It's already accounted for. Selling simply locks in your loss.




Sounds about right. Looking at my spreadsheet, as of yesterday's close, I'm up 101.51% from my pre-covid high, and 186.98% from the covid low. I've also been drawing on it since 4Q23.

Note that simply beating the S&P won't cut it for a hedge fund. They typically help themselves to 2% of gross assets plus 20% of gains. Each year. (And, no, their performance as a group doesn't beat fidelity and vanguard actively managed funds.

Some funds have been consistently beat the S&P over the long term. I don't consider shorter periods than 10 years when evaluating funds, although I check to see that shorter term results are consistent. My five year average for full years, including the turkeys, is just barely shy of 15%; the 10 year is a. bit over 12.

OK, it helps that I bought a chunk of FDGRX well before it closed to new investors. :ROFLMAO: They closed it in 2006, but it
s a "slow shutdown"--kind of hard to argue with given it's performance (19.19% average compound ten year return). It's kind of swollen its share of my portfolio,

Anyway, if you're looking at long term (and mine was planned on a 75 year horizon; I'm in the second half and now stretching it to contemplate my grandchildren's retirements), the best strategy is to leave it there and not react to news. Trim turkeys every few years, but cautiously. Don't try to pop in and out. Don't pay commissions or 12b1 fees.
Try this again, system keeps bumping me out tonight. You are correct, Like the Vanguard stuff I have, very low fees and performs very well. I have never taken money out of any of my accounts. I am in it for the long haul and don't need the cash, something not all can do. Same as you, I never care what is happening in the news, the market will do what the market does, regardless of who farted today. It is, on occasion difficult to watch a bad year go by, sometimes I want to puke. But I consider myself an investor, not a trader by any means. I "adjust" my portfolio only once a year (twice on rare occasions) and have been blessed so far. While I do look at 3 and 5 year returns, I also like 10 or even longer. Most of the stocks I own are medium risk or slightly higher. Earlier in my 20's and 30's, I was on th "risky" side. but now stay in balanced stuff and like the value stock, no growth stuff for me, although my 401k still has some higher risk/growth in it. Most of my friends have their accounts managed by the professional guys, but I do better than almost all of them. I understand though some folks don't want the hassle, or have not educated themselves enough to want to mess with it. Doesn't bother me and saves me a little dough. You are doing very well! I wish they would get kids in high school to have required classes on the markets/investing. I believe this could help them immensely with their future financial health.
 

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Wow, this thread got derailed... Its now an investment portfolio thread.

So, I crossed the border yesterday at Nogales. Saw the same presence on the US and Mex sides that I'm used to seeing there. However, let me mention these 2 crossings st the dual cities of Nogales Sonora and Nogales Arizona have always been heavily staffed .. if either side added more, Im not sure what they would do with them as all gates and all offline inspection areas are always packed. The wall here is about 20' tall in both eastern and western directions. I'm told many churches in Nogales Sonora are providing shelter to Refugees who were waiting in Mexico but had their US applications frozen or dropped altogether as a consequence of the EO.

Likewise, both countries have additional checkpoints at about 15 km for Mexico and 20 miles for the USA. Additionally, there are smaller pop-up revision areas scattered about the secondary roads/highways along each side of the border.

Yesterday, I saw a caravan of 200 soldiers in 20 vehicles getting gas in Santa Ana .. They were heading to the border areas between California and Nogales AZ as a result of the deal struck post tarriff EO . I asked them... But I didn't take any photos (they have big guns). 😅

I encountered very few inspection points further away from the border.. so it's obvious lots of resources are being pulled to be placed along the border.. No one asked for proof of paying duty on the two washing machines I hauled down for two families in the Maverick. That is unusual, but these down state checkpoints just didn't have the staff to check every car zipping down the highway... It will be interesting to see how they handle the logistics of supporting large numbers of deployed soldiers in the remote sections of the desert.

Ford Maverick Issues with Tariffs, both Mexico AND Canada [ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICS; MEMBERS ALREADY BANNED FOR IT] IMG20250206093956


The National Guard has been used to augment or outright replace (in the case of corruption) municipal police forces throughout Mexico to monitor/control cartel activities as they extend their reach to other industries/opportunities (hotels, convenient store franchises, everything else ...) and bully competitors... Majority of Cartel activities are in legitimate enterprises, though operated unethically. Now these resources will focus soley on gun/drug trafficking along the border. So, it will interesting to see the impact in the next few months and years. I'm going to cruise by my local Marines barracks here in Álamos (8 hours from the border) and see if they're being redeployed north.

I continue to see huge numbers of semis in large caravans with 2025 Mavericks and Brinco Sports heading north. January was a record breaking month for production in Hermosillo, so obviously there is some beat the clock activity occuring... This certainly is not anything to do with the Quality Hold at this point.

Through it all, Peso is stable at just above 20 to 1....
 
 







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