Possible Outcomes for Remaining 2022 MY production

[Clive]

I'm trying to think through the possible outcomes here. It seems like there are 2 main scenarios, either Ford can produce all 2022 VINs or it can't:

Scenario 1. Ford is able to complete all scheduled 2022 orders with VINs:

1a. Ford magically gets all parts needed and completes every build by 11/14​

1b. Ford extends production through December and delays the start of 2023 MY to January​

1c. Ford extends production through December and builds 2022 Hybrids concurrent with 2023 Ecoboosts​

1d. Ford extends 2022 production into January 2023 or beyond (don't think this is possible with model year production rules).​

Scenario 2. Ford is not able to complete all scheduled 2022 orders with VINs:

2a. Ford cancels some 2022 VINs leaving buyers with no option of reordering since the 2023 banks are closed​

2b. Ford cancels some 2022 VINs but allows special order bank access for buyers to reorder a 2023 (with private offer)​

2c. Ford directly converts some 2022 VINs to 2023​

i. This could be done without changing any build options for many orders​

ii. Maybe in this scenario 2022 First Edition orders are prioritized to be completed in 2022, perhaps along with Velocity Blue and XL orders (don't want those 22's getting cruise control without paying for it).​

Unlikely Scenario 3. Ford begins production on all 2022 orders, but leaves some unfinished

3a. Not sure how/if this works with model year production rules, but could Ford start production on all 2022s but leave some parked waiting for chips/parts/engines to be completed in 2023?​

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[MLowe05]

I think 1C is most likely, builds concurrently. But honestly there is no way to know and it changes every hour.

You would think the car company that invented mass production would be better at it.

 

[commadorebob]

I think 1C is the most likely. Start the MY23 EB while reserving all incoming hybrid parts for the leftover MY22 orders. And it would fit with what we saw last week where Ford was looking at EBs only when scheduling.

 

[Steelman]

I will be buying a 23 Toyota hybrid tire of waiting on Ford

 

[AutobahnSHO]

I don't think car manufacturers EVER do 1C. It's a lot of work to switch to the 'new' year, even if hardly nothing on the model has changed. Someone who works auto manufacturing said plants don't do that.

 

[skadizzle]

We've already seen new 22 schedule dates into December so 1a is out the window. I think it will be 1b and if needed 2b or 2c. Based on how screwed up things have been so far, I see them taking all the way to the end of December building 22s. If there are some leftovers, they will most likely turn them into 23s, hopefully being at the front of the line.

Ford should focus on building all remaining 22s and hold all supplies to them. Only if they run out of material should they then start producing 23s (Ecoboosts most likely). They will probably only be stripped down Ecos also so that all Lux chips get held for 22s.

Sorry new 23 orders, but you can wait your turn like the rest of us!

 

[commadorebob]

I don't think car manufacturers EVER do 1C. It's a lot of work to switch to the 'new' year, even if hardly nothing on the model has changed. Someone who works auto manufacturing said plants don't do that.

The trucks are unchanged other than the package contents, which you could rebuild when you ordered. And the assembly line will do a Bronco Sport right behind it. I think it is perfectly doable to run the MY23 EB and the MY22 Hybrids at the same time. Especially if the only constraint keeping them building out the MY22 orders is the batteries.

Ford may not like doing it, but I'm sure they also like having all the parts they need.

 

[Deleted member 5597]

Since the farthest out I’ve seen ‘22 production is the week of 15-19 December, and Hermasillo being closed Christmas week into the New Year, I’d say that’s going to be the end of the line for the ‘22 MY and for those who may have VIN’s for ‘22. I’m going to go on and say, just my opinion, that even some with a MY ‘22 VIN, that there still may be parts constraints, and further cancellations or rollovers may occur. I don’t have an inside scoop, it’s just my opinion.
I received a production email on 22 August with a production date of 19 Sept, then pushback emails of 9/26, 10/3, 10/10, 10/17, and 10/31. And that’s just on a “Plain Jane” hybrid XLT since my ordering dealer removed the Lux and CP360 w/o my consent. That order was placed on 10/15/22. If it actually goes into production during the week of 10/31, it still won’t arrive at the dealer until Jan ‘23. I already told him I’m not taking delivery of a naked hybrid XLT.

For those of us who ordered a MY ‘23, I can about bet production won’t even start until Jan or Feb ‘23 at the earliest, and that’s not even taking into consideration the constrained items and packages, which someone else listed here in another thread. I personally ordered a ‘23 hybrid Lariat with lux, both CP’s, and the BAP. One dealer told me I had a 0% chance of it going into production. The other said he didn’t see a problem. It’s just a crap shoot for everyone and anyone’s guess for the rest of the ‘22 orders and those of us who ordered a ‘23 model, and those that were rolled over.

 

[Tirpitz]

I think we are looking at 1B. The rescheduling already points to this. Plus we have yet to see any 2023 scheduling happen.

For legal reasons I don’t think Ford can run 2022 production in 2023 so anything they can’t finish in December they will have to figure out how to convert into 2023 and compensate the buyers accordingly.

 

[Tirpitz]

The trucks are unchanged other than the package contents, which you could rebuild when you ordered.

I don’t think that is true because you are adding Tremor which is a unique body code. But I will say I’m not a production planner for manufacturing beyond some small scale consumer electronics stuff in the 1990s. So I might be wrong.

However I think it is far more likely from the manufacturing point of view to finish the 2022’s, fill in gaps with Bronco Sports and convert over to 2023 during the down week at year end.

 

[Clarkdonbran]

I will be buying a 23 Toyota hybrid tire of waiting on Ford

I’ll sell you the other 3 tires with an ADM!

 

[Clive]

So based on Tim’s latest livestream, it looks like 2C is the winner. Honestly makes the most sense.

 

[JoeTime]

I'm trying to think through the possible outcomes here. It seems like there are 2 main scenarios, either Ford can produce all 2022 VINs or it can't:

Scenario 1. Ford is able to complete all scheduled 2022 orders with VINs:

1a. Ford magically gets all parts needed and completes every build by 11/14​

1b. Ford extends production through December and delays the start of 2023 MY to January​

1c. Ford extends production through December and builds 2022 Hybrids concurrent with 2023 Ecoboosts​

1d. Ford extends 2022 production into January 2023 or beyond (don't think this is possible with model year production rules).​

Scenario 2. Ford is not able to complete all scheduled 2022 orders with VINs:

2a. Ford cancels some 2022 VINs leaving buyers with no option of reordering since the 2023 banks are closed​

2b. Ford cancels some 2022 VINs but allows special order bank access for buyers to reorder a 2023 (with private offer)​

2c. Ford directly converts some 2022 VINs to 2023​

i. This could be done without changing any build options for many orders​

ii. Maybe in this scenario 2022 First Edition orders are prioritized to be completed in 2022, perhaps along with Velocity Blue and XL orders (don't want those 22's getting cruise control without paying for it).​

Unlikely Scenario 3. Ford begins production on all 2022 orders, but leaves some unfinished

3a. Not sure how/if this works with model year production rules, but could Ford start production on all 2022s but leave some parked waiting for chips/parts/engines to be completed in 2023?​

2C has already been communicated to the dealers. But not some, but ALL December scheduled 2022 VINS, according to the fordvideoguy, Tim Bartz.

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