Mathemachickens Only

[chuckles]

Given the absolute dearth of information from Ford;
their insulting "You can't handle the truth" email spam;
and the ignorant incessant whining on this forum,
I've decided to try posting some information.

The forum's order tracker seems to be useful but somewhat corrupt. As posted by others, there are at least 600 duplicate and errant entries. Cleansed a bit, we can see the following information.

Orders, by week. The forum's graph is useless. Try this one instead. It seems the effect of the October release of YT stuff and articles/reviews is noticable.

The order tracker (in this enthusiast forum) seems to be weighted toward hybrids. If the 60/40 order split is to be believed, we are under-represented by ecoboost orders. The same effect may be seen in scheduled builds. We may be good at reporting orders, but not so good following through on build info. Nonetheless, this trajectory does not appear favorable. This chart looks forward to estimate the number of builds remaining unscheduled.

We have heard little about the allocation selection system other than Ford is trying to (perhaps ineffectively so) prioritize June/July/August builds. This does appear to be represented in our data. Looking at each order week, and unscheduled builds for that week, they do generally favor the builds before mid-August.

We have also heard or pontificated that higher profit builds get the nod over base models. (This seems silly when comparing simple Mavericks to F-150s and Broncos). Again, the data does not bare this out. Aside from constraint based Lux packages -- SIBL, all trims are being built.

Hybrid XLT Lux does seem to lag, but it is the single largest trim and multiply constrained. --sadly--

Enough already. Enjoy or not. Ignore if you prefer.

This is what our data (~5200 valid entries) suggests. It's accuracy for trending purposes may not be reliable.

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[DryHeat]

Interesting stats... But I'm having trouble interpreting the graph below. What do the different lines represent?

I read the legend but couldn't understand why hyb_ordered and hyb_unscheduled would go to zero at the same time. Same for ecob_ordered and ecob_unscheduled.

If the unscheduled lines represent how many of the orders from that week are still unscheduled today -- my first thought -- it makes it look like almost no hybrids ordered after September have been scheduled. Is that what the data shows? I thought I had seen several such folks on here report being scheduled but I could be wrong.

 

[TSAINTS1115]

Well you've found something to occupy your time until your truck comes.

 

[chuckles]

I read the legend but couldn't understand why hyb_ordered and hyb_unscheduled would go to zero at the same time. Same for ecob_ordered and ecob_unscheduled.

If the unscheduled lines represent how many of the orders from that week are still unscheduled today -- my first thought -- it makes it look like almost no hybrids ordered after September have been scheduled. Is that what the data shows? I thought I had seen several such folks on here report being scheduled but I could be wrong.

Your conjecture is correct. This graph attempts to display the number of orders submitted on a particular week, and of those orders, the number remaining unscheduled today. The difference between the two would represent the number that have been scheduled (at some point in time). If a particular week does not have any orders (submitted that week), it can't have orders remaining unscheduled (submitted for that week).

Of course, the validity is limited to the data in the tracker. If it has not been updated when a build email is received, it would show as unscheduled. In other words, garbage in, garbage out.

 

[YOBY]

Given the absolute dearth of information from Ford;
their insulting "You can't handle the truth" email spam;
and the ignorant incessant whining on this forum,
I've decided to try posting some information.

The forum's order tracker seems to be useful but somewhat corrupt. As posted by others, there are at least 600 duplicate and errant entries. Cleansed a bit, we can see the following information.

Orders, by week. The forum's graph is useless. Try this one instead. It seems the effect of the October release of YT stuff and articles/reviews is noticable.

The order tracker (in this enthusiast forum) seems to be weighted toward hybrids. If the 60/40 order split is to be believed, we are under-represented by ecoboost orders. The same effect may be seen in scheduled builds. We may be good at reporting orders, but not so good following through on build info. Nonetheless, this trajectory does not appear favorable. This chart looks forward to estimate the number of builds remaining unscheduled.

We have heard little about the allocation selection system other than Ford is trying to (perhaps ineffectively so) prioritize June/July/August builds. This does appear to be represented in our data. Looking at each order week, and unscheduled builds for that week, they do generally favor the builds before mid-August.

We have also heard or pontificated that higher profit builds get the nod over base models. (This seems silly when comparing simple Mavericks to F-150s and Broncos). Again, the data does not bare this out. Aside from constraint based Lux packages -- SIBL, all trims are being built.

Hybrid XLT Lux does seem to lag, but it is the single largest trim and multiply constrained. --sadly--

Enough already. Enjoy or not. Ignore if you prefer.

This is what our data (~5200 valid entries) suggests. It's accuracy for trending purposes may not be reliable.

Incomplete data sets should always be ignored. No better than what we receive from Ford. Consider it ignored.

 

[SkeeterB]

Thanks for the hard work on this. Explains a lot.

 

[DryHeat]

Of course, the validity is limited to the data in the tracker. If it has not been updated when a build email is received, it would show as unscheduled.

I think that's the biggest problem with this dataset. Not everyone on the forum put their information in at the beginning, and only a subset of those who did have bothered to update it.

Still, even this rough data shows some interesting trends in ordering and scheduling. Thanks for putting it together.

 

[RR - All the way]

Understanding the potential bias in the submission data, it does appear that AWD vehicles are being built in higher proportion to trims without AWD. True in all trims, but in base XLT vs. XLT, AWD which are about the same percentages.

 

[RR - All the way]

Understanding the potential bias in the submission data, it does appear that AWD vehicles are being built in higher proportion to trims without AWD. True in all trims, but in base XLT vs. XLT, AWD which are about the same percentages.

From eyeballing your graph number 2, it appears that about 28.5 percent of hybrids have been scheduled and about 36.5 percent of EBs. Does that more or less agree with your raw numbers?

Knowing there may be real problems in the the rate of reporting the builds, those percentages still look a bit scary for the chance of no MY23 rollovers considering number of months left for future build dates.

 

[jbpoole]

Given the absolute dearth of information from Ford;
their insulting "You can't handle the truth" email spam;
and the ignorant incessant whining on this forum,
I've decided to try posting some information.

The forum's order tracker seems to be useful but somewhat corrupt. As posted by others, there are at least 600 duplicate and errant entries. Cleansed a bit, we can see the following information.

Orders, by week. The forum's graph is useless. Try this one instead. It seems the effect of the October release of YT stuff and articles/reviews is noticable.

The order tracker (in this enthusiast forum) seems to be weighted toward hybrids. If the 60/40 order split is to be believed, we are under-represented by ecoboost orders. The same effect may be seen in scheduled builds. We may be good at reporting orders, but not so good following through on build info. Nonetheless, this trajectory does not appear favorable. This chart looks forward to estimate the number of builds remaining unscheduled.

We have heard little about the allocation selection system other than Ford is trying to (perhaps ineffectively so) prioritize June/July/August builds. This does appear to be represented in our data. Looking at each order week, and unscheduled builds for that week, they do generally favor the builds before mid-August.

We have also heard or pontificated that higher profit builds get the nod over base models. (This seems silly when comparing simple Mavericks to F-150s and Broncos). Again, the data does not bare this out. Aside from constraint based Lux packages -- SIBL, all trims are being built.

Hybrid XLT Lux does seem to lag, but it is the single largest trim and multiply constrained. --sadly--

Enough already. Enjoy or not. Ignore if you prefer.

This is what our data (~5200 valid entries) suggests. It's accuracy for trending purposes may not be reliable.

You can't trust numbers.

We've all heard Pi r-squared.

Utter nonsense.

Everybody knows pie are round. Cornbread are square.

 

[chuckles]

From eyeballing your graph number 2, it appears that about 28.5 percent of hybrids have been scheduled and about 36.5 percent of EBs. Does that more or less agree with your raw numbers?

Good eye. Hybrid 773 scheduled / 2772 submitted 27.9% Ecoboost 884 scheduled / 2436 submitted for 36.3% (wanna peer review an xls?)

One might assume uniformity in bias across build reports. Even so, we don't know total orders or even hybrid/ecoboost split beyond anecdotal reference. I doubt and would question end of year backlog from this data. I'm guessing ford's erp systems and teams of analysts know (but aren't telling). Again, we can't handle the truth.

 

[RR - All the way]

Good eye. Hybrid 773 scheduled / 2772 submitted 27.9% Ecoboost 884 scheduled / 2436 submitted for 36.3% (wanna peer review an xls?)

One might assume uniformity in bias across build reports. Even so, we don't know total orders or even hybrid/ecoboost split beyond anecdotal reference. I doubt and would question end of year backlog from this data. I'm guessing ford's erp systems and teams of analysts know (but aren't telling). Again, we can't handle the truth.

I understand the "garbage in -- garbage out" concept, so interpretation is, at best, risky.
However our garbage in, is the only garbage in town; more reliable sources do not seem very interested in providing us better garbage!!

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