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Estimated Build Date Graph
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So I guess since they didn't release Feb production numbers, you can't update? Such a bummer because this was a helpful reference.
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OK, here is a redo of the build date chart. A tabular form is included on the bottom of the post. The chart contains many assumptions that may fail to provide reasonable prediction. As with all free advice, it is worth what you pay for it. Talk to your dealer. I’ve been flamed before for trying this and I expect more of the same. However, my dealer hasn't pushed updates, and there is nothing better for me to look at. I welcome any better objective information.
This projection, like the one in the start of this thread, solely treats everything as a fifo. Despite Ford’s pivot to a fifo (amidst constraints) system, scheduling has not and may not be pure fifo. We don’t know and can’t predict how ford handle multiple constraints on the same order. The contraints, assumed constant will likely evolve over time.
Assumptions: (eight pages of methodology deleted).
Estimated as representing a sampling of 6.125% of real population. Assumed skewed favorable to hybrid by 6%.
Based solely upon constrained fifo scheduling of the unscheduled order profiles (inflated by a factor of 16) tallied against a projected (constrained) production of 125k units (modeled as curve for simplicity):
(edited to correctly recognize end of model year)
I'd look at more recent updates of the tracker, but I'd rather go trout fishing.
Flame away!
This projection, like the one in the start of this thread, solely treats everything as a fifo. Despite Ford’s pivot to a fifo (amidst constraints) system, scheduling has not and may not be pure fifo. We don’t know and can’t predict how ford handle multiple constraints on the same order. The contraints, assumed constant will likely evolve over time.
Assumptions: (eight pages of methodology deleted).
Estimated as representing a sampling of 6.125% of real population. Assumed skewed favorable to hybrid by 6%.
Based solely upon constrained fifo scheduling of the unscheduled order profiles (inflated by a factor of 16) tallied against a projected (constrained) production of 125k units (modeled as curve for simplicity):
| Projected build week | |||
order wk | hybrid | hybrid lux | ecoboost | ecoboost lux |
06/07/21 | 05/16/22 | 05/23/22 | 05/16/22 | 05/16/22 |
06/14/21 | 05/23/22 | 06/06/22 | 05/16/22 | 05/23/22 |
06/21/21 | 05/30/22 | 06/20/22 | 05/23/22 | 06/06/22 |
06/28/21 | 06/06/22 | 07/04/22 | 05/23/22 | 06/13/22 |
07/05/21 | 06/13/22 | 07/18/22 | 05/30/22 | 06/20/22 |
07/12/21 | 06/20/22 | 08/01/22 | 05/30/22 | 06/27/22 |
07/19/21 | 06/20/22 | 08/15/22 | 05/30/22 | 07/04/22 |
07/26/21 | 06/27/22 | 08/22/22 | 06/06/22 | 07/11/22 |
08/02/21 | 07/04/22 | 08/29/22 | 06/06/22 | 07/18/22 |
08/09/21 | 07/04/22 | 09/12/22 | 06/06/22 | 07/18/22 |
08/16/21 | 07/11/22 | 09/19/22 | 06/06/22 | 07/25/22 |
08/23/21 | 07/11/22 | 10/03/22 | 06/13/22 | 08/01/22 |
08/30/21 | 07/18/22 | 10/10/22 | 06/13/22 | 08/01/22 |
09/06/21 | 07/18/22 | 10/17/22 | 06/13/22 | 08/08/22 |
09/13/21 | 07/25/22 | MY23 | 06/13/22 | 08/08/22 |
09/20/21 | 07/25/22 | MY23 | 06/20/22 | 08/15/22 |
09/27/21 | 08/01/22 | MY23 | 06/20/22 | 08/15/22 |
10/04/21 | 08/08/22 | MY23 | 06/20/22 | 08/22/22 |
10/11/21 | 08/08/22 | MY23 | 06/27/22 | 09/05/22 |
10/18/21 | 08/22/22 | MY23 | 06/27/22 | 09/12/22 |
10/25/21 | 08/29/22 | MY23 | 07/04/22 | 09/26/22 |
11/01/21 | 09/05/22 | MY23 | 07/04/22 | 10/03/22 |
11/08/21 | 09/12/22 | MY23 | 07/11/22 | 10/10/22 |
11/15/21 | 09/12/22 | MY23 | 07/18/22 | 10/17/22 |
11/22/21 | | | 07/18/22 | MY23 |
11/29/21 | | | 07/25/22 | MY23 |
12/06/21 | | | 07/25/22 | MY23 |
12/13/21 | | | 08/01/22 | MY23 |
12/20/21 | | | 08/01/22 | MY23 |
12/27/21 | | | 08/01/22 | MY23 |
01/03/22 | | | 08/08/22 | MY23 |
01/10/22 | | | 08/08/22 | MY23 |
01/17/22 | | | 08/15/22 | MY23 |
01/24/22 | | | 08/22/22 | MY23 |
I'd look at more recent updates of the tracker, but I'd rather go trout fishing.
Flame away!
Last edited:
No flame here, thanks for posting. Certainly not good news for my late Oct order with all the bad stuff, but definitely believable, given that there are still June/July orders with my same combo that are unscheduled. Definitely a longshot for me to get a MY22, but hopefully the old 207k mile Honda holds on a bit longer...
Nice work! My build week hasn't changed appreciably from the earlier graph, no surprise. Seeing someone crunch the numbers again and come up with similar results is comforting. Now it's time to sit back and enjoy spring and summer and get the garage ready for a new addition this fall. Thanks again @chuckles
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One small quibble - for the last MY22 EB lux you list a build week of 10/24, but the final production date for MY22 is 10/21 (Friday of the previous week). MY23 production is planned to start on 10/24, so I'd posit that final EB lux entry should say MY23 in your chart.
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quibble accepted and addressed.
Oh great, now the 11/22 EB orderers are all gonna be mad at me for killing their dream... LOL
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Hardly. It is all a continuum. It's not like production ceases... Everything just continues the following week.
Besides, there are so, so many assumptions cooked into this -- without enlightenment from Dearborn, who knows?
For sure... I've tried to do a similar forecast for just a single dealership (where my order is), but there are just so many variables and unknowns, it's really pure speculation.
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Yup, I'm with horsham there also. I appreciate your efforts there. I think this fifo stuff, if real, is setting me back two months. I was kind of predicting better based on the lower allocations. The chart above hit me hard. But good to know.
View attachment 47174
Do you happen to know the total number of Mav's they have sold? I can't reconcile to all of Tom's posts (going way back) and hit his 400 order mark Sep of last year. I am guessing, they have a total of about 572 orders.
Your horsham tracking is great. I'd like to see all of us horsham orders in a list. We could try following the fifo progression. You know, treat each other as the canary in the coal mine...
cheers!
Cheers, indeed! I was bummed when he seemingly stopped posting, as he was providing some really good info early on. That was part of what inspired me to try to put together a prospective timeline of sorts.
You have my exact order (even same color!) except you were smart enough to order it 2 months earlier than me, so I would bet you are still in pretty good shape to get scheduled. I was really thinking after I'd heard Granger and Long-McArthur had such huge allocation jumps this month that Chapman would as well, so it was a bit of a gut-punch when they did not.
I've known for a good while that the best I could hope for was probably a Sept/Oct delivery of my order, but with the constraints being what they are and seeing someone like you - with my same order at the same dealer - still unscheduled, I strongly suspect I was a little too late to the order party and will hopefully get an early-ish MY23.
Guess I forgot to answer this part. I never had a good fix on their total order count, as it was always a moving target. I am pretty confident of the "unscheduled" numbers as a snapshot in time of what they had left, and maybe (since I'll be waiting a while anyway, haha) I'll go back and try to match up the numbers scheduled that he posted combined with the remaining unscheduled to get a rough number.
What I'd really love to know is how many of hybrid/EB were ordered in each given month, so I could at least see where mine fits in the grand scheme of things. At the end of Jan, they had 170 unsched Hybrids (yours & mine being two of them). I've always known I was near the bottom of the hybrid stack, having ordered on 10/26; it would be awesome to know how many were ordered in November, as they would technically be "after" mine. I know this is a gross over-simplification, as mine has the trifecta of constraints (Hyb/Lux/CP-360 - 40%/14%/32%), but itr would still be great to hear that there were 20 or 30 ordered after mine, haha.
If I can get any more numbers figured out, I'll keep you posted. Got nothing else to do, not like I'm tracking a shipment, haha!
@chuckles - here's an interesting data point for your consideration... 10/27 EB order, Lariat Lux with CP-360, just got scheduled for build week of 5/16. This would seem to suggest that Ford is much further along on scheduling EBs (even with highly constrained items). I'm happy for the order holder, but this would seem to be contrary to the purported FIFO approach.
It almost makes one wonder if the added cost of the EB was the deciding factor in which order (this late October one vs some unscheduled Jun/Jul/Aug/Sep hybrid) got the constrained items. Certainly makes financial sense for Ford.
It almost makes one wonder if the added cost of the EB was the deciding factor in which order (this late October one vs some unscheduled Jun/Jul/Aug/Sep hybrid) got the constrained items. Certainly makes financial sense for Ford.
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UPDATED.So made a few graphs to illustrate when you MIGHT expect YOUR Maverick to be built based on when you ordered.
Using numbers from how many reservations were made and assuming 70% order rate. Comparing that to production numbers which (fingers crossed) have been hovering around 6k units per month for the last 3 months. (Hopefully that increases).
these will be updated monthly as production numbers come in.
However there are other factors that contribute to Build Dates other than Reservation date.
1 Dealer allocation. Larger dealers get more Mavericks than smaller.
2 Maverick Configuration, hybrids are going to take longer to build, as well as Lariats or LUX/ High packages requiring more chips.
these graphs are just to help approximate when you COULD expect your Maverick.
First is the Weeks reservations. From reveal to then end of 2021.
blue line is Monthly orders based on reservation date. Green is total.
Hard to know EXACTLY how many orders there are, but this is a close guestimation.
Then heres the monthly production numbers. Will be updated Monthly to reflect current production numbers.
(Updated May 25, 2022)
blue line is the monthly production numbers, green is projected (3 month average)
Grey/black line is total.
as you can see based on when your placed your reservation, you can get a general idea of when you could see your maverick. Again there are other factors. If you have a more simple build with the 2.0 your likely gonna get it earlier than a complex hybrid.
I think its safe to say if you have a order for a 2.0 currently you will definitely get it before the new year. If you have a current order for a hybrid, they COULD be done by the end of the year. But the farther down the reservation list you are, the lest likely thats going to happen unfortunately.
so looks like production is running full steam now. ~9000 units a month.
so it looks like if you ordered your Maverick (Ecoboost) before October 1st you should be getting it soon.
If you made it before the end of 21. You should see it before the end of summer. Meaning a 22 model year.
Then any orders from 2022 and Any hybrid orders will likely be a 2023 model. Being made in fall of 2022.
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