Cost of Ownership based on MPG

[nubbuchadnezzar]

I'm a numbers guy.

When I was considering ordering a Maverick, I did a cost analysis to see if it would be worth the investment. I owned a Nissan Titan which I owed around 15K and compared the cost of the Maverick against a few other vehicles.

When I ordered my Mav, gas prices were around $3.25-3.50 a gallon.
This cost breakdown is ONLY based on initial vehicle cost + gas to drive X miles.

I updated this chart to be based on $4/gal gas (which is currently lower than market).

Here's a breakdown of vehicles being compared:
2014 Titan: $14,600 owed. Average 16 MPG
2022 Hybrid Maverick XLT with Lux: $26,600. Average 41 MPG (This is what I'm averaging to date)
2022 EB Maverick XLT with Lux: $28,600. Average 25MPG
2022 Santa Cruz (Build comparable to XLT Lux): $36,000. Average 25 MPG
2022 Tuscon Hybrid SUV: $36,000. Average 36 MPG

After driving the Maverick for ~75K miles, it will overtake the $15K Titan and remain the lowest cost vehicle.

EDIT:
Updated chart based on Santa Cruz SEL without Activity Package. (Not SEL Premium) $28,900 base price.

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[brnpttmn]

I did a similar analysis of fuel costs as part of TCO when the EPA ratings were released, but as a spreadsheet schedule of high/low (mileage & gas) costs by the city/hwy mix of driving. Here's the updated schedules based on current local gas prices:

Maverick HEV vs. Maverick AWD/EB:

City %	Hwy %	EB AWD	Hybrid	% diff	MPG diff	$/yr (@15K $4.75)	$/yr (@10K $4.35)	5 yr est
100​	0​	22​	42​	91%​	20​	$ 1,542	$ 942	$ 6,209
90​	10​	22.7​	41.1​	81%​	18.4​	$ 1,405	$ 858	$ 5,658
80​	20​	23.4​	40.2​	72%​	16.8​	$ 1,272	$ 777	$ 5,123
70​	30​	24.1​	39.3​	63%​	15.2​	$ 1,143	$ 698	$ 4,604
60​	40​	24.8​	38.4​	55%​	13.6​	$ 1,018	$ 621	$ 4,097
55​	45​	25.2​	37.95​	51%​	12.8​	$ 956	$ 583	$ 3,847
50​	50​	25.5​	37.5​	47%​	12​	$ 894	$ 546	$ 3,600
40​	60​	26.2​	36.6​	40%​	10.4​	$ 773	$ 472	$ 3,111
30​	70​	26.9​	35.7​	33%​	8.8​	$ 653	$ 399	$ 2,629
20​	80​	27.6​	34.8​	26%​	7.2​	$ 534	$ 326	$ 2,150
10​	90​	28.3​	33.9​	20%​	5.6​	$ 416	$ 254	$ 1,675
0​	100​	29​	33​	14%​	4​	$ 298	$ 182	$ 1,199

Maverick HEV vs Nissan Titan:

City %	Hwy %	Titan	Hybrid	% diff	MPG diff	$/yr (@15K $4.75)	$/yr (@10K $4.35)	5 yr est
100​	0​	16​	42​	163%​	26​	$ 2,757	$ 1,683	$ 11,099
90​	10​	16.5​	41.1​	149%​	24.6​	$ 2,585	$ 1,578	$ 10,406
80​	20​	17​	40.2​	136%​	23.2​	$ 2,419	$ 1,477	$ 9,739
70​	30​	17.5​	39.3​	125%​	21.8​	$ 2,258	$ 1,379	$ 9,093
60​	40​	18​	38.4​	113%​	20.4​	$ 2,103	$ 1,284	$ 8,467
55​	45​	18.3​	37.95​	108%​	19.7​	$ 2,027	$ 1,237	$ 8,160
50​	50​	18.5​	37.5​	103%​	19​	$ 1,951	$ 1,191	$ 7,857
40​	60​	19​	36.6​	93%​	17.6​	$ 1,803	$ 1,101	$ 7,261
30​	70​	19.5​	35.7​	83%​	16.2​	$ 1,658	$ 1,012	$ 6,676
20​	80​	20​	34.8​	74%​	14.8​	$ 1,515	$ 925	$ 6,100
10​	90​	20.5​	33.9​	65%​	13.4​	$ 1,374	$ 839	$ 5,532
0​	100​	21​	33​	57%​	12​	$ 1,234	$ 753	$ 4,968

Maverick HEV vs Santa Cruz FWD

City %	Hwy %	Santa Cruz FWD	Hybrid	% diff	MPG diff	$/yr (@15K $4.75)	$/yr (@10K $4.35)	5 yr est
100​	0​	21​	42​	100%​	21​	$ 1,696	$ 1,036	$ 6,830
90​	10​	21.5​	41.1​	91%​	19.6​	$ 1,580	$ 965	$ 6,363
80​	20​	22​	40.2​	83%​	18.2​	$ 1,466	$ 895	$ 5,904
70​	30​	22.5​	39.3​	75%​	16.8​	$ 1,354	$ 826	$ 5,450
60​	40​	23​	38.4​	67%​	15.4​	$ 1,242	$ 758	$ 5,002
55​	45​	23.3​	37.95​	63%​	14.7​	$ 1,187	$ 725	$ 4,779
50​	50​	23.5​	37.5​	60%​	14​	$ 1,132	$ 691	$ 4,557
40​	60​	24​	36.6​	53%​	12.6​	$ 1,022	$ 624	$ 4,115
30​	70​	24.5​	35.7​	46%​	11.2​	$ 912	$ 557	$ 3,673
20​	80​	25​	34.8​	39%​	9.8​	$ 803	$ 490	$ 3,231
10​	90​	25.5​	33.9​	33%​	8.4​	$ 692	$ 423	$ 2,788
0​	100​	26​	33​	27%​	7​	$ 581	$ 355	$ 2,340

The five-year estimate is a mid-point of the high/low cost estimates.

All else equal, at current gas prices and the added initial cost of the EB/AWD, you're basically paying an additional $140/mo for the Maverick EB/AWD (or almost $17K over ten years).

 

[nubbuchadnezzar]

I also threw together a separate chart of cost per 10K miles, omitting base price.

Gas Price	Titan (16 MPG)	Mav Hybrid (41)	Mav EB (25)	Santa Cruz (25)	Hybrid SUV (36)
3.5	$2,187.50	$853.66	$1,400.00	$1,400.00	$972.22
3.75	$2,343.75	$914.63	$1,500.00	$1,500.00	$1,041.67
4	$2,500.00	$975.61	$1,600.00	$1,600.00	$1,111.11
4.25	$2,656.25	$1,036.59	$1,700.00	$1,700.00	$1,180.56
4.5	$2,812.50	$1,097.56	$1,800.00	$1,800.00	$1,250.00
4.75	$2,968.75	$1,158.54	$1,900.00	$1,900.00	$1,319.44
5	$3,125.00	$1,219.51	$2,000.00	$2,000.00	$1,388.89
5.25	$3,281.25	$1,280.49	$2,100.00	$2,100.00	$1,458.33

 

[RR - All the way]

Thread Starter. Your graph looks good. Great work. I understand this is based on MPG only. Cost of tires, potential cost of financing, expected reliability, insurance costs, and resale value are not included. The resale value is probably negligible at the 200k mile point of your graph. It may not be for the person who usually trades earlier. Not complaining, an excellent graph.

 

[nubbuchadnezzar]

Your chart looks good. Great work. I understand this is based on MPG only. Cost of tires, potential cost of financing, expected reliability, insurance costs, and resale value are not included. The resale value is probably negligible at the 200k mile point of your graph. It may not be for the person who usually trades earlier. Not complaining, an excellent graph.

Thanks! Yeah, I'm typically not putting 200K miles on my vehicles before I move on. But, ditching my Titan was a no-brainer.
There are the other ancillary and unpredictable costs around any vehicle, because repairs can be a matter of luck, in some cases.

My insurance actually went down when I switched to a 2022 Mav from the '14 Titan, so that's a plus.

 

[WildHorse]

SC SEL, instead of SEL Premium, should be used to compare with MAV (HYB/EB) XLT LUX

 

[nubbuchadnezzar]

SC SEL, instead of SEL Premium, should be used to compare with MAV (HYB/EB) XLT LUX

Thanks! Updated.
Omitted the activity package, since it has significant items (cover and moonroof) which are not available in the XLT Lux package.

 

[vap0rtranz]

Perfectly timed post b/c I was just checking fuel retail forecasts.

Who bets $5.25/gal by end of summer? Californians are already paying more so I don't think $5.25/gal is a doomsday forecast. The EIA's data was up, up, and up; then their forecast settles just above '21 prices. OK, maybe:

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/us_oil.php

An Internet troll will usually chime in here to say that inflation adjusted prices wash this TCO out, and no -- they're stuck in the '90s. Not sure how much data is needed for them but again the CPI says we're paying more at the pumps than we were during that '08 Wall Street mess:

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

The geopolitcs on fuel supply is a mess now, US supply isn't meeting domestic demand, and we're paying at the pump. Good briefing from CME group just this morning on US oil lag: https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/e...ale-oil-output-is-lagging-soaring-prices.html

At least our Hybrids are getting >40MPG.

 

[nubbuchadnezzar]

I just took my Hybrid to Indy over Memorial Day weekend ~90% highway trip, and got 38 MPG (driving in ECO with a soft bed cover).

 

[vap0rtranz]

The highway MPG we see depends on speed -- if still stock (so no lift, aftermarket tires, etc). I've noticed that above 65mph, my dash MPG Guess-O-Meter starts to drop. Between that and down to 55mph, it's above 40MPG. Out here in the country, it's easy for me to hover around 55.

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