A log of the investment returns and loan for my 25 Maverick

[dochawk]

I don't generally plan on updating between quarters, but this was a wild enough month in the markets that I'm tossing out an observation:

There were four days this month in which be investment balance dropped by more than a full payment. Interestingly enough, the day the payment was withdrawn wasn't one of them. There were two days on which the balance increased by more than a payment.

This is not something for those with low risk tolerance to do!

I started the month with 17 full payments more than payoff, and finished with 16.

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[Bob zimmerman]

At this point you are just gambling. But that’s what the market is by any other name.
The market has been good this year. A few days and weeks of worry followed by weeks and months of frothy profits.

Have fun. When it’s all said and done, your truck will be paid for and hopefully you have a good chunk of money to play with too!

I’m not as optimistic in the market long-term but I’ve been wrong before. I took out some profits and paid cash for my Mav.
Bob

 

[dochawk]

At this point you are just gambling. But that’s what the market is by any other name.
The market has been good this year. A few days and weeks of worry followed by weeks and months of frothy profits.

crypto is gambling.

day trading is gambling.

When you're looking at time horizons of 10 years and larger, the market is the house . . .

The math is utterly different when there is a risk of hitting 0, and when there isn't.

And I'm working on a 75 year horizon, not 10. In the not too distant future, I'll be expanding that past the time I'm likely to be around. As it is, it's not my children's inheritances that I'm "gambling" with, but my grandchildren's . . .

 

[Bob zimmerman]

It’s gambling but not meant to be an offensive post. I like what you're doing!

Let’s call it gambling but you have an edge against the house.
Bob

 

[dochawk]

And once the odds are in your favor, the Central Limit Theorem shows you increasingly unlikely to lose the combined game as the number of events increase.

Faro is still a legal game in Nevada, but not a single casino has offered it for several decades--it has no house edge, and any number of casinos and gambling houses changed hands over it in the distant past!

 

[dochawk]

25Q4 now in.



The Roth holds $49,795, while the payoff is $38,131. So for the moment, up $4,792. [edited: incorrectly said $31,152).

I have $7,026 more than I started with, after making the first 8 payments.

Alternatively, I now have payoff + 7 payments.

Current holdings:

Fund	Value	shares	price
FDGRX	$16,940.61​	352.709​	$48.03​
FDSVX	$3,494.60​	49.802​	$70.17​
FSELX	$10,944.18​	243.963​	44.86​
FWWFX	$8,596.32​	231.532​	$36.83​
VGENX	$9,819.56​	194.91​	$50.38​
Total	$49,795.41​	​
Loan	$38,131​

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[rody]

Looks good. That’s a detailed way to track things, and it’s actually helpful to see it broken down like that. Most people don’t go that far into the numbers. It gives a clearer picture of what ownership really looks like. Over time, it’ll be interesting to see how it balances out. Financial tracking like this can be eye-opening. It’s kind of like comparing fubotv reviews—you look at the long-term value.

 

[Tiger Dude]

And once the odds are in your favor, the Central Limit Theorem shows you increasingly unlikely to lose the combined game as the number of events increase.

Faro is still a legal game in Nevada, but not a single casino has offered it for several decades--it has no house edge, and any number of casinos and gambling houses changed hands over it in the distant past!

Financial markets are not normal distributions, they are dominated by Black Swans (see the book).

 

[dochawk]

Financial markets are not normal distributions, they are dominated by Black Swans (see the book).

Veering way off topic, but the CLT doesn't require normal distributions--it imposes them regardless of the underlying distrubiton.

 

[Tiger Dude]

Veering way off topic, but the CLT doesn't require normal distributions--it imposes them regardless of the underlying distrubiton.

CLT is for samples, not for the population

 

[mrtruckerson]

While this has been hashed about in theoretical and generalized terms, I'm following through, and will post periodic updates.

I have created a separate Roth IRA account, and transferred funds to exactly cover the loan--to the penny, both are $42,646.00 at this moment.

There is a wrench in that I have about a $1,970 refund coming, that will probably go back to the lender. Part my deposit, part farm bureau, and part something else (maybe I double entered something, or adjusted for expecting the $300 increase on the advanced trailer from Job 2 [that they didn't ask for, anyway]). Anyway if it pays down the balance, I'll make adjustments to keep things apple to apple.

So today, March 22 2025, the balance is $42,646, and the interest rate is 4.79% for 72 months.

The initial allocation is:

Fund	Value	shares	price
VEUSX	$9,690.96​	113.106​
FEVFX	$11,377.09​	286.072​
VGENX	$10,428.07​	224.115​
FDGRX	$9,690.96​	264.131​
Cash	$1,000.89​	​
Total	$43,646​
Loan	$43,646​

The first two will be gradually converted to largely FWWFX and FDSVX, comparable Fidelity funds with significantly better 10 year performance. some will go to FDGRX (closed to new investors since 2006). The rest, as well as VGENXX, will go to as yet undetermined funds. (These are changes that were already underway in the account they came from).

(I'll note that this combination is not "balanced", and would be downright reckless for many, possibly most, people. This is definitely aggressive.)

My guess is that most likely, I'll have 40-45% left when I make the last payment in six years, but 50% is conceivable.

I did something similar with my covid EIDL, converting cash reserves into a segregated account to match the withdrawals from the EIDL. after almost a year and a half of payments, there's about 21% more in those funds than went in in the first place. That loan, however, has a 35 year amortization, though, and 3.75% interest. I segregated a Roth for it, too, in the same amount, and am now drawing down the taxable (the horror! ) account that used to be the EIDL offset. (seriously, folks, if you have the same things in your Roth and taxable, draw down the taxable!)
I actually like the way you’re documenting this because it treats the loan and the investment side as one system instead of two separate decisions, and that mindset matters when you’re running an aggressive setup like this. You’re clearly aware that this isn’t a balanced approach and that makes a big difference, since you’re tracking risk, cash flow, and downside instead of just hoping markets cooperate. For me, the smart part is the controlled experimentation angle, very similar to how I approach testing new financial mechanics elsewhere, which is why I often point people to things like welk casino kan je 1 euro storten as an example of low commitment testing before scaling up, you put in the absolute minimum, observe behavior, volatility, and rules, then decide if it’s worth more exposure. That logic applies just as well to leveraged investing as it does to anything else involving uncertainty. Your updates over time will be far more valuable than any spreadsheet projection because real world variance is the whole story here. Keeping that discipline and resisting the urge to tweak emotionally is probably what will decide whether this ends up being a clever play or an expensive lesson.

I actually appreciate seeing someone document this instead of just debating it in the abstract. Matching the loan balance to the penny and isolating the account removes a lot of the usual noise. The allocation is definitely aggressive, but you’re clear about that, and it fits the goal. What makes this compelling to me is that it tests behavior as much as math. Sitting through drawdowns while still making payments is the real challenge. Even if the result underperforms the loan, having clean data over six years will be far more valuable than another spreadsheet argument.

 

[dochawk]

26Q4 now in.

This quarter was a ride, especially the last month!

The Roth holds $49,200, while the payoff is $36,526. So for the moment, up $12,674 [edited: incorrectly said $31,152).

I have $3,283 more than I started with, after making the first 11 payments. Note that I have $595 less than I did a quarter ago, but paid off about three times that in principal.

Alternatively, I now have payoff + 18.5 payments.

Note: markets have been falling for a couple of weeks; my full portfolio was down over 10% from peak. Today, the portfolio as a whole was up 4.26%, while the maverick section was "only" up 3.89%. A huge single day swing of $1,842.58--again a warning not to do this if you can't absorb the losses if things go sideways!

Current holdings:

Fund	Value	shares	price
FDGRX	$16,940.61​	352.709​	$48.03​
FDSVX	$3141.60​	47.564​	66.05​
FSELX	10896.51​	235.092​	46.35​
FWWFX	$7,889.04​	231.532​	$36.83​
VGENX	$11,531.52​	192.964​	$59.76​
Total	$49,200​
Loan	$36,526​

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