Value down the line

[Billkowski]

Curious on opinions about which truck, ecoboost or hybrid, will hold the highest percentage of its MSRP 3-4 years down the line. Electric vehicles are coming on strong, with goals being mandated but batteries age and I wonder how the used market will value those vehicles.

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[Mav_RICK]

I think the hybrid wins this hands down unless gas prices take a big dive and people believe they will stay there. There may be some regional differences though in the prices.

 

[Maverick Life]

Curious on opinions about which truck, ecoboost or hybrid, will hold the highest percentage of its MSRP 3-4 years down the line. Electric vehicles are coming on strong, with goals being mandated but batteries age and I wonder how the used market will value those vehicles.

Yeah this will be interesting to watch.

One thing I've always wondered is whether (or how well) hybrid vehicles can operate in what is basically an all-gas scenario with a completely dead battery. As long as the 12v starter battery works, can you still use the gas powertrain in a lower efficiency mode?

If you can't, that's a massive risk to value retention. If you can though, that should insulate the hybrid to some extent against depreciation due to battery issues. Assuming the truck won't just die on a dead HV battery gives us something a little closer to apples-to-apples (or ICE-to-ICE) in thinking about future value. For ICE performance, the EB obviously has an edge over the hybrid as long as we don't consider the electric part of the powertrain.

Working the electric component back into the equation I think brings two big considerations. First as @Mav_RICK mentioned, fuel prices are likely the most salient aspect. When they go up, so does the retained value of vehicles that use less fuel. Second, there's a lot of activity right now in the global market for battery materials required to build new hybrid/electric vehicles. If the cost of these materials increases, that should also protect the value of hybrids in the used market.

In general, I think the hybrid will probably keep more value based on broad economic factors but there's one more (kind big) thing going for the EB: If you need the extra power or AWD, the hybrid just won't cut it and it's not an option. So honestly - who knows?

So long as oil doesn't just dry up, there should be a used market that supports reasonable value for both platforms. ...and if we do run out of oil, then neither option will work very long anyway and we all should have gotten an EV instead. oh well.

 

[LSchicago]

Curious on opinions about which truck, ecoboost or hybrid, will hold the highest percentage of its MSRP 3-4 years down the line. Electric vehicles are coming on strong, with goals being mandated but batteries age and I wonder how the used market will value those vehicles.

Hybrid will hold the most value, unless some horrible reliability issues crop up. Batteries should be a non issue, as Prius hybrid batteries typically last 300K miles. By 300K miles, resale value should be little with either engine.

 

[Mav_RICK]

Yeah this will be interesting to watch.

One thing I've always wondered is whether (or how well) hybrid vehicles can operate in what is basically an all-gas scenario with a completely dead battery. As long as the 12v starter battery works, can you still use the gas powertrain in a lower efficiency mode?

If you can't, that's a massive risk to value retention. If you can though, that should insulate the hybrid to some extent against depreciation due to battery issues. Assuming the truck won't just die on a dead HV battery gives us something a little closer to apples-to-apples (or ICE-to-ICE) in thinking about future value. For ICE performance, the EB obviously has an edge over the hybrid as long as we don't consider the electric part of the powertrain.

Working the electric component back into the equation I think brings two big considerations. First as @Mav_RICK mentioned, fuel prices are likely the most salient aspect. When they go up, so does the retained value of vehicles that use less fuel. Second, there's a lot of activity right now in the global market for battery materials required to build new hybrid/electric vehicles. If the cost of these materials increases, that should also protect the value of hybrids in the used market.

In general, I think the hybrid will probably keep more value based on broad economic factors but there's one more (kind big) thing going for the EB: If you need the extra power or AWD, the hybrid just won't cut it and it's not an option. So honestly - who knows?

So long as oil doesn't just dry up, there should be a used market that supports reasonable value for both platforms. ...and if we do run out of oil, then neither option will work very long anyway and we all should have gotten an EV instead. oh well.

The only way we run out of oil is if we allow governments to mandate it. Who knows with all kinds of people plugging their vehicles in thereby increasing demand on electricity and oil demand going down, the gas vehicle might be the bargain of the future.

 

[Scott Asheville]

“Difficult to see; always in motion is the future.” Yoda

 

[Maverick Life]

The only way we run out of oil is if we allow governments to mandate it. Who knows with all kinds of people plugging their vehicles in thereby increasing demand on electricity and oil demand going down, the gas vehicle might be the bargain of the future.

The notion of oil suddenly becoming unavailable is a red herring. Sorry I mentioned that distraction.

I only meant to illustrate that the hybrid and EB might be more alike that not. As long as there is any supply of fuel - which to your point, seems to be a safe assumption - there should be a good market for both, and if not, we have bigger issues.

 

[Halo9x]

Yeah this will be interesting to watch.

One thing I've always wondered is whether (or how well) hybrid vehicles can operate in what is basically an all-gas scenario with a completely dead battery. As long as the 12v starter battery works, can you still use the gas powertrain in a lower efficiency mode?

If you can't, that's a massive risk to value retention. If you can though, that should insulate the hybrid to some extent against depreciation due to battery issues. Assuming the truck won't just die on a dead HV battery gives us something a little closer to apples-to-apples (or ICE-to-ICE) in thinking about future value. For ICE performance, the EB obviously has an edge over the hybrid as long as we don't consider the electric part of the powertrain.

Working the electric component back into the equation I think brings two big considerations. First as @Mav_RICK mentioned, fuel prices are likely the most salient aspect. When they go up, so does the retained value of vehicles that use less fuel. Second, there's a lot of activity right now in the global market for battery materials required to build new hybrid/electric vehicles. If the cost of these materials increases, that should also protect the value of hybrids in the used market.

In general, I think the hybrid will probably keep more value based on broad economic factors but there's one more (kind big) thing going for the EB: If you need the extra power or AWD, the hybrid just won't cut it and it's not an option. So honestly - who knows?

So long as oil doesn't just dry up, there should be a used market that supports reasonable value for both platforms. ...and if we do run out of oil, then neither option will work very long anyway and we all should have gotten an EV instead. oh well.

I had a Prius and the battery died but it still worked. It was still barely under warranty and the battery was replaced but the car still worked.

 

[Maverick Life]

I had a Prius and the battery died but it still worked. It was still barely under warranty and the battery was replaced but the car still worked.

It seemed reasonable that hybrids would be designed like this but nonetheless, it's also very reassuring to hear such first hand experience. Thanks for sharing!

 

[Billkowski]

My perspective on this, as limited as it may be, is that with electric/hybrid vehicles, 3-4 years into their life have already lost the complete capabilties it had when new, a 3-4 year old gas vehicle still pretty much does everything it did when new. Electrics lose range, if you had 30 miles of all electric when new, after 4 years you might only have 20 for example. I just kinda think that might turn off a used car buyer-it would me. Not to mention new battery tech that may make the stuff made now obsolete. Maybe those batteries dont degrade as much as I think they do. I guess I need to go look at used Prius values.

Edit: Ok looked up Prius values, they actually do pretty well. That might be helped by the Toyota badge, but still encouraging for hybrid owners.

 

[Tailender]

To me it doesn't matter. I'm keeping it until the wheels fall off! And even then I'll fix it! I guess if you're looking to trade or sell you might feel differently.

 

[SLINGSHOT]

Yeah this will be interesting to watch.

One thing I've always wondered is whether (or how well) hybrid vehicles can operate in what is basically an all-gas scenario with a completely dead battery. As long as the 12v starter battery works, can you still use the gas powertrain in a lower efficiency mode?

The 12 volt battery does NOT, NOT, NOT start the hybrid. The 12 volt powers the ECU, lights, radio etc.
The traction battery, the BIG HIGH VOLTAGE ONE, starts the ICE in the hybrid. Not enough juice in the 12 volt, no start without a jump. Not enough in the traction battery to spin the ICE, SCREWED.

 

[LSchicago]

The 12 volt battery does NOT, NOT, NOT start the hybrid. The 12 volt powers the ECU, lights, radio etc.
The traction battery, the BIG HIGH VOLTAGE ONE, starts the ICE in the hybrid. Not enough juice in the 12 volt, no start without a jump. Not enough in the traction battery to spin the ICE, SCREWED.

Yes, no starter or alternator on the hybrid. But the Hybrid battery is Cheap at $2,000 from Ford. Compare to $1,200 for refurb, or $500-800 for used. Really not an issue to get back on the road when it does fail in 200K-400K miles.

 

[Sirk]

If the rates of depreciation of the 2020 Escape provides any guidance, then the Mav hybrid might be a (slightly) better bet.

According to cars.com, the '20 Escape Titanium Hybrid had a lower starting MSRP than the '20 Titanium ice version, but the hybrid's resale value is higher today - at least in my corner of the country.

I don't know anything about the specs of the two versions and how comparable they were, but the difference in starting MSRP was $1,785, with the ICE version being higher, and the difference in trade-in value today is $1,898, with the hybrid being higher.

I compared both versions with AWD, since the ice Titanium trim wasn't available in FWD.

 

[Milton Jeff]

So long as oil doesn't just dry up, there should be a used market that supports reasonable value for both platforms. ...and if we do run out of oil, then neither option will work very long anyway and we all should have gotten an EV instead. oh well.

Umm, no fear of that in our or our kids generations. In addition to this link I read somewhere that Canada's reserves are enough for at least 300 years.
We got your back.
https://natural-resources.canada.ca...s/crude-oil/crude-oil-industry-overview/18078

Fresh water as well...

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