Long McArthur 794 MY23 Orders from Episode 58 & 59 Live Stream, 132 XL, 449 XLT, 213 Lariat with 68.6% of them Hybrids !!!

[Vols44]

Time to change the thread title. I won't steal @fordvideoguy information ahead of tomorrow evening's live stream. I let him give out the 4-1-1 during his presentation or in the chat. I talked to the F&I person handling the back end of my order this afternoon. It was a great conversation and LM is a fantastic place to do business. It will be hard to duplicate E58, but new and interesting facts are surely forth coming.

Sponsored

 

[huunvubu]

Time to change the thread title. I won't steal @fordvideoguy information ahead of tomorrow evening's live stream. I let him give out the 4-1-1 during his presentation or in the chat. I talked to the F&I person handling the back end of my order this afternoon. It was a great conversation and LM is a fantastic place to do business. It will be hard to duplicate E58, but new and interesting facts are surely forth coming.

Kind of hard to change title when you give no information as to what has changed.

I have heard that orders at LM went up to 795 with 80% still being hybrids. But that info was not from Tim.

Tomorrow I will listen to the Tim's Live Stream. If new info is given I will update title and first post.

 

[James D]

Kind of hard to change title when you give no information as to what has changed.

I have heard that orders at LM went up to 795 with 80% still being hybrids. But that info was not from Tim.

Tomorrow I will listen to the Tim's Live Stream. If new info is given I will update title and first post.

Yeouch, 800 Mav orders? I would hate to be waiting in that line. I hope they disclosed how many allocations they will be getting. I can't imagine it is 800 when I read about other very large dealers only having 100-200 Mav allocations. If so, Tim will have a ton of pissed off people. He should have warned them he already had a huge line and to order somewhere else.

 

[Vols44]

Kind of hard to change title when you give no information as to what has changed.

I have heard that orders at LM went up to 795 with 80% still being hybrids. But that info was not from Tim.

Tomorrow I will listen to the Tim's Live Stream. If new info is given I will update title and first post.

I'm contributing to a thread that's had a good run. I'll wait and post on any E59 thread in the future.

 

[Vols44]

Yeouch, 800 Mav orders? I would hate to be waiting in that line. I hope they disclosed how many allocations they will be getting. I can't imagine it is 800 when I read about other very large dealers only having 100-200 Mav allocations. If so, Tim will have a ton of pissed off people. He should have warned them he already had a huge line and to order somewhere else.

@fordvideoguy , make it perfectly clear to people who follow his live streams and FB live that 60-80 priority 10 MY23 orders (representing the carried over 22's) would be entered into the WBDO and COVP ahead of transferred 22s and new 23 orders at priority 15.

Taking the high end of 80 and subtract them from the original 581 leaves 501 MY22's sold. A projected total of 800 leaves 720 priority 15's. . If you remember the new allocation formula part one will enable LM to duplicate MY22's total of 500. Part two of the formula the potential to earn an extra 25% of monthly allocations. That brings the total to 625.

A crystal ball is needed to project how many duplicate orders people placed at LM and another dealership. Sprinkle in refused orders that LM has canceled in the past and will do so in the future to reduce the remaining 95 (via duplicate/refused) and a LM antagonist will crawl back under their rock while begrudgingly giving @fordvideoguy his due.

Ford did not place a ceiling on orders on any of the three body codes.

 

[581u812]

So that is 59% percent more then they had in 2022? how many 2022 orders were there in total 120,000? Extrapolated that is 190k for MY23


For the record i am finding that hard to believe.

Yeouch, 800 Mav orders? I would hate to be waiting in that line. I hope they disclosed how many allocations they will be getting. I can't imagine it is 800 when I read about other very large dealers only having 100-200 Mav allocations. If so, Tim will have a ton of pissed off people. He should have warned them he already had a huge line and to order somewhere else.

And I'm concerned at my local dealership that I'm number 8 in line for 23 model

 

[jim13]

Yeouch, 800 Mav orders? I would hate to be waiting in that line. I hope they disclosed how many allocations they will be getting. I can't imagine it is 800 when I read about other very large dealers only having 100-200 Mav allocations. If so, Tim will have a ton of pissed off people. He should have warned them he already had a huge line and to order somewhere else.

Nobody has a clue how many allocations they’re receiving.

 

[Impetus19]

I'm contributing to a thread that's had a good run. I'll wait and post on any E59 thread in the future.

Man i hope you got something up your sleeve.

 

[Crowley Cajun]

And I'm concerned at my local dealership that I'm number 8 in line for 23 model

I’m nervous because I’m #2 MY 23 at my dealer #1 hybrid out of approximately 30 orders. I’m a rollover and me and #1 guy are both supposed to be only priority 10s. They sold 28 last year. Hopefully this is my year

 

[James D]

The problem isn't so much with their total of 795 orders, the problem is that ~80% of those 795 are Hybrid. Ford isn't going to send LM Ford ~80% Hybrids and only send Ecoboosts to every other dealer.. Ford cannot build to the hybrid/ecoboost split that LM has on their order books, let alone at that quantity. LM may very well recieve 500-600 2023 Mavericks, but there's no way 80% of those are hybrids.. maybe they deliver 250-300 Hybrids next year. That's still leaving them with more Hybrid orders unfulfilled than Hybrid orders delivered for 23MY..

LM buyers, when you check out at a grocery store, do you go to the longest line? I think you are spot on Dave, the math is out of whack.

80% of LM orders are hybrid but prior to 2023 launch Ford notified LM and all dealers that only 35% of all builds would be hybrid. Tim's solution would have been simple, if he thought his total allocations could be 500, OK stretch it to 600, 35% of 600 = 210 hybrids. So as they were taking orders, all Tim had to do was cap their hybrid orders around 200. Instead there was a paper party going on in the form of orders flying. My bet is most of those people will be left with only that piece of paper when this model year is done.

How many could be left hanging? 800 total orders X 80% hybrid = 640. 640 - 210 = potential of 430 pissed off hybrid buyers. Oops, that is over half of their total orders.

The only way to fulfill all 640 hybrids at a 35% factory build ratio is LM would need allocations totaling 1828 Mavericks. Sorry folks, you might want to call Tim and post the excuse here that he gives you about your hybrid order #300 in his very long line. Not doing a little math based upon info Ford gave him in advance is just reckless.

He is not doing his videos out of the kindness of his heart, there is a lot of commissions and bonuses at stake. What do they say about car salespeople? Don't trust them.

Tim will have a riot on his hands if 400+ people realize they may not get their builds and Tim should have told them to order elsewhere.

 

[Scott052065]

Maybe, just maybe Ford watched the numbers carefully and stopped orders before the max Hybrid numbers were reached so there would be NO ROLLOVERS needed? Ford did say they were going to fix all the problems they were having in 2022. I'm remaining positive that my Saturday Hybrid order will be built.

Still waiting on my22 , order October 15th 2021 hybrid rolled over to my23 September 19th 2022 dropped all reported constraints changed to priority 10 hoping to have by spring would be 18 months by then

 

[Uncle Ed]

You have to assume that some folks placing orders with Tim and Long McArthur have back-up orders with other dealers, especially since some dealers that required a deposit for 2022 models aren’t doing it for the 2023s.

In my area it's the exact opposite, dealers are insisting on a deposit for 2023 .

 

[Landric]

LM buyers, when you check out at a grocery store, do you go to the longest line? I think you are spot on Dave, the math is out of whack.

80% of LM orders are hybrid but prior to 2023 launch Ford notified LM and all dealers that only 35% of all builds would be hybrid. Tim's solution would have been simple, if he thought his total allocations could be 500, OK stretch it to 600, 35% of 600 = 210 hybrids. So as they were taking orders, all Tim had to do was cap their hybrid orders around 200. Instead there was a paper party going on in the form of orders flying. My bet is most of those people will be left with only that piece of paper when this model year is done.

How many could be left hanging? 800 total orders X 80% hybrid = 640. 640 - 210 = potential of 430 pissed off hybrid buyers. Oops, that is over half of their total orders.

The only way to fulfill all 640 hybrids at a 35% factory build ratio is LM would need allocations totaling 1828 Mavericks. Sorry folks, you might want to call Tim and post the excuse here that he gives you about your hybrid order #300 in his very long line. Not doing a little math based upon info Ford gave him in advance is just reckless.

He is not doing his videos out of the kindness of his heart, there is a lot of commissions and bonuses at stake. What do they say about car salespeople? Don't trust them.

Tim will have a riot on his hands if 400+ people realize they may not get their builds and Tim should have told them to order elsewhere.

I have no intention of being a White Knight for Tim or anyone else.

That said, I have seen no indication that Ford is dividing allocations up between hybrid and EB at 35/65. If a dealer (LM or someone else) gets 20 Maverick allocations they might all get built as hybrids or EBs or some combination. If LM gets enough allocations to cover all their orders they might very well get 80% hybrids and 20% EBs. Or they might not. The 35/65 split is for overall production numbers, not the allocations at a specific dealership. At this point we have absolutely no idea how this will play out.

FWIW, my order is with LM. I was a 2022 roll-over so I probably stand a pretty good chance of getting scheduled. But, I ordered a Tremor for 2023 so who knows.

Would I order from LM now if orders were still open? Probably not if I wasn't a roll over order that was going to get set at Priority 10.

 

[paneubert]

I have no intention of being a White Knight for Tim or anyone else.

I am of the same mind. I don't want to be seen as a "fan-boy" for Tim or LM, but by virtue of paying attention to his posts, videos, etc..., it is clear that he is not leading anyone on. He is full of disclaimers and cautionary tales whenever he speaks about ordering. In a good way.

Yes, this is his job, and yes, he benefits when a vehicle is sold. But he has been very clear with people about the fact that nobody knows what the heck Ford is going to ACTUALLY do. All he or any of us can rely on is how it happened in the past, and what Ford has claimed they will do in the future. He has shown the numbers and formulas about the two different ways Ford had CLAIMED they are going to do allocations for 2023. When you run those numbers, he has the allocations to fill his orders. Based on his sales from the 2022 model year combined with the supplemental/secondary allocations based on 2023 orders. It is just math. If Ford changes things up, he has no control over that.

When I have talked with Tim on the phone, he was very clear about constraints, and clear about what may or may not impact being selected for production. He doesn't promise you will get it in any set amount of time. He literally discourages people from adding constrained options, and went on video to tell folks who order a Tremor that they would be waiting a looooooong time most likely.

Asking a dealer to arbitrarily stop taking orders for a certain drive-train or for a certain option based on the published constraints list is a weird ask, especially when you don't know what your total orders are going to be. How can you cut it off at 10% or 20% or 30% of your total orders when you don't know what 10% or 20% or 30% of your total orders will be? You don't know until the end. You just take the orders until the total number reaches something you are comfortable with and then stop. Whatever ratios you have are what you have when the dust settles.

Believe it or not, LM did stop taking orders. Tim mentioned it in a video shortly before the banks closed.

 

[huunvubu]

I have updated the title and the first post with data Tim shared in tonight's Live Stream.

This is a duplicate of the info in post #1 of this thread:

I just watched Episode 59 Live Stream and here is the updated information from Episode 59

He mentioned that they have 794 orders as one got canceled

Of the 794 orders the breakdown is such:

132 XL's or 16.6%
449 XLT's or 56.6%
213 Lariat's or 26.8%

Of the 794 orders 545 (68.6%) are Hybrids and 249 (31.4%) are EcoBoosts.
So about a 2.2 to 1 ratio of Hybrids to EcoBoosts.

Fords Constraint of 35% Hybrid to 65% EcoBoost ratio is pretty much the opposite at 2.03 EcoBoost to Hybrid.

Sponsored