Is a Bigger Hybrid crunch coming? -- warning signs do exist.

[Dadmezz]

I honestly haven't a clue.

For those inclined, here is a video for how to run the cafe modeling program. It is beyond my beanie but still interesting. Looked to me that Ford was overall on target projection for 22and 23my when the simulation was ran 3 years ago in this video.


Enjoy!

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[WesM]

Ethically, should one Hummer be built or 200 Hybrid Mavericks using the same number of battery cells?

When it comes to environmental impact the choice is black and white.

That argument could be made about almost any EV vs most Hybrids. Even a basic Tesla Model 3 has a 50kwh battery, which would make around 45 Maverick batteries.

From an emissions impact it would make much more sense to make all vehicles Hybrids first, then slowly convert to EVs (or hopefully some tech that is better than current batteries). We could easily have all Hybrids on the road in 5-10 years. Full EV conversion is going to take 30+ years at current supply rates. Only 3% of vehicle sales are EV and they are already having issues supplying those with batteries.

 

[B2000]

I'm told by people in the industry that the EPA requirements are very much more complicated than the actual numbers that vehicles get. There are all sorts of other factors that enter in- such as where the car or engines are built but way more convoluted than that. It takes teams of people to try to figure out the regs and calculate the estimated mileage numbers and they make mistakes as Hyundai, Mazda and others have made and been penalized for. So I don't know but a company like Ford could get a big adjustment for producing the hybrids way in excess of the actual average mpgs.

Governmental agencies are so politicized now I think a company could get an adjustment for inclusiveness or some other social metric.

From Car and Driver: " Every automaker will now need its fleet of light-duty vehicles sold in the U.S. to average 49 mpg by 2026. This new federal requirement is part of changes made to Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, which were announced today by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). (It's important to note that these mpg numbers are unadjusted figures that don't represent what individual cars can be expected to achieve. You can anticipate that 49 mpg unadjusted will yield a figure somewhere in the mid-30s on an average window sticker. For a thorough explanation of CAFE regulations and what they mean to actual fuel economy in your vehicle, see our earlier story on the subject.) "

 

[rlhdweman]

I keep seeing posts like this (so I'm not picking on you specifically in any way), saying the Maverick Hybrid is to increase the average MPG in Ford's truck lineup, which undoubtedly, it does.. but how much actually? YTD Ford production through August reveals a measly 61,000 Mavericks produced to 545,000 F-Series trucks.. If we assume 35% hybrids on the Maverick, that's only 21k Hybrid Mavericks. It would take way more than 21,000 Mavericks to really move the needle on average MPG. We're talking a 25-to-1 ratio of F-Series to Hybrid Mavericks produced on the year so far..

As a simplified reference, 25 F-Series averaging say 15 MPG (generous?) + 1 Maverick averaging 37 MPG (est. EPA combined) results in an average of 15.85 mpg. That one Hybrid Maverick isn't boosting the average all that much.

I don't that is how it works, I believe it goes by fleet average, which means 1 model(engine) of each, so if you take the F150 which is 18 combined(you also have engines of 3.3-2.7-3.5-5.0) & the Maverick hybrid @ 37 combined 18+37=55 divided by 2 =28 for just those 2. That is why the hybrid makes a huge difference for Ford. it averages into each model & EV's really help that figure.

 

[hikonhui]

Honestly the Hummer is a joke.

Getting a Hummer does not equal a happy ending.

 

[Timothyd]

Getting a Hummer does not equal a happy ending.

I'm willing to try. And, to keep at it till the job is finished.

 

[GPSMan]

I drove the Bolt EV for six years. Really loved it. Great commuter car. 250 miles range meant I only needed to recharge once every 2 weeks. Lots of free public and even more pay charging stations. I paid like 3 cents a mile for 60,000 miles.
IN THE BIG CITIES.

What about rural areas in Western states? In areas of the west you are 110 miles between GAS stations. Finding charging, good luck with that.

I HAD to buy a liquid fueled vehicle. I HAD TO to get where I want to go. EV is not an option for everyone today. And I love driving EV's.

 

[GPSMan]

Hybrid is the best of both worlds. Basically an EV in stop and go conditions. Basically a gas car for long trips. 2 in 1 and a great value since it does not cost double.

 

[DavesMav]

I don't that is how it works, I believe it goes by fleet average, which means 1 model(engine) of each, so if you take the F150 which is 18 combined(you also have engines of 3.3-2.7-3.5-5.0) & the Maverick hybrid @ 37 combined 18+37=55 divided by 2 =28 for just those 2. That is why the hybrid makes a huge difference for Ford. it averages into each model & EV's really help that figure.

That makes sense and is a fair assessment.

 

[GPSMan]

I would never have considered a truck for my daily commuter "car" to and from the office.... until Maverick came along. I lamented needing to keep the Bolt EV for 5 days a week commuting, and needing to keep a separate truck parked for 300 days a year.

Maverick was the right vehicle at the right time at the right price for me. Now I hope and pray the reliability is there to last 250,000 miles.

 

[SoCalPaddy]

From the VIN sequence numbers posted on MTC there will be about 115,000 units built by the end of the MY22 productions by the first week of Nov. 22. If they build the same for MY23 , at a 35/65 that would be about 40,000 Hybrids. That should be enough to cover the 25 to 30 percent, mostly Hybrids, carried over from MY22 toMY23, and some new MY23 orders.

 

[LSchicago]

Ford is currently building 3 new lithium battery plants in te KY/TN/GA areas now.

 

[Darnon]

Ford is currently building 3 new lithium battery plants in te KY/TN/GA areas now.

...that won't be operational for another 2 years.

 

[LSchicago]

...that won't be operational for another 2 years.

Well they did increase Hybrid capacity from 35% to 50% this year. If the can add another 15% next year things would start to ease up a bit before the new plants come on line.

 

[Syntax Error]

Well they did increase Hybrid capacity from 35% to 50% this year. If the can add another 15% next year things would start to ease up a bit before the new plants come on line.

It's only 50% for the remaining months of MY2023 production.

I hope they can keep the Hybrid ratio much closer to the actual order ratio of like 70/30 Hybrid/Ecoboost for MY2024, but I doubt it. It was originally 60/40 Ecoboost/Hybrid for MY2022, and then they reduced it to 65/35 Ecoboost/Hybrid for most of MY2023 until the last few months, so maybe on average when all is said and done it might be closer to MY2022's 60/40 Ecoboost/Hybrid ratio.

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