How California Advanced Clean Cars II rules may guarantee a Maverick PHEV very soon [WARNING: NO POLITICS]

[Shay]

With some 17 states likely to follow the new California Advanced Clean Cars II rules just adopted today, some big changes are coming to market. With this many states jumping on board, this will create a critical mass for manufacturers to ramp up electrified versions of current models, particularly plug-in versions – in addition to all-new electric vehicles.

The ruling states that by 2035, 100% of all new cars, trucks and SUVs sold in California (and following states) will need to be Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV).

The ruling states that the ZEV requirement can include a mix of both 100% battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV). A car company can sell up to a 20% mix of PHEV to meet the regulation so long as it gets up to 50 miles EV range.

The new rules begin phasing in starting 2025 with a requirement that 35% of all new vehicles be ZEV and that gradually grows to 100% as defined above by 2035.

How does this relate to a Ford Maverick PHEV?

1) It means that in a very short time, it will be essentially a requirement that a PHEV Ford Maverick exist if Ford wants to sell the model in California and the other 17 states long term. So look for it likely by 2024 or 2025 at the latest.

2) It also means than when a Maverick PHEV is offered it will likely need to have an EV range of at minimum 50 miles to continue on long term. This may be why we haven't seen or heard much about it if they are needing to ramp up its capabilities from the current powertrain sold in the Escape PHEV which does not offer 50 miles EV range.

3) Because a standard hybrid model (HEV) as it exists now will likely make less sense in the long term to offer along side a PHEV, the PHEV may become the only electrified version available. Obviously, like all gas powered vehicles, eventually the only Maverick powertrain available.

So rejoice, a PHEV is almost a certainty and likely to be the only choice a decade from now.

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With some 17 states likely to follow the new California Advanced Clean Cars II rules just adopted today, some big changes are coming to market. With this many states jumping on board, this will create a critical mass for manufacturers to ramp up electrified versions of current models, particularly plug-in versions – in addition to all-new electric vehicles.



So rejoice, a PHEV is almost a certainty and likely to be the only choice a decade from now.

Hopefully, the EV-charging infrastructure will be in place for convenient and fast charging by then.

 

[TonyS]

Hopefully, the EV-charging infrastructure will be in place for convenient and fast charging by then.

About 80% of Americans live in stand alone houses. And the appeal of a PHEV is that it can run on gas when the battery is depleted.

PHEV vehicles don't need infrastructure. With their much smaller batteries they don't need fast charging. Which is why if Ford offers a 2023 PHEV Maverick I will order one and decide what to do with my 2022 Hybrid when the blessed day comes it is actually at my dealer waiting for me to pick up. Probably buy it and drive it until the PHEV gets built.

 

[Tailender]

I love how government, who can't run a business, is telling industry what to do without regards to how it will affect everything it touches. Why don't they mandate we have flying cars or better yet, telaporters? I'm not against new tech, but let the market decide. My biggest question with all electric cars is where is all the power to charge them going to come from? Oh that's right, they mandated you have controlable power meters so they don't have to worry about you using too much electricity. They just won't let you have it!

 

[gte105u]

I'm curious how these states plan on getting power to all these cars. I mean in the literal sense of enough power without the grid crashing. Until improvements are made in renewable energy it's also just shifting from fossil fuels at the vehicle to fossil fuels at the power plant. But at least tree huggers get to pat each other on the back...

 

[stoptothink]

About 80% of Americans live in stand alone houses. And the appeal of a PHEV is that it can run on gas when the battery is depleted.

PHEV vehicles don't need infrastructure. With their much smaller batteries they don't need fast charging. Which is why if Ford offers a 2023 PHEV Maverick I will order one and decide what to do with my 2022 Hybrid when the blessed day comes it is actually at my dealer waiting for me to pick up. Probably buy it and drive it until the PHEV gets built.

About 80% of owned homes are detached. According to the latest census, a little more than 60% of U.S. citizens live in detached homes though. And, the percentage of detached homes is less in large metro areas, such as are prevalent in California. I live in suburban Utah and far less than 80% of the residences in my city are detached, and the percentage is decreasing - the large majority of new housing being built do not offer the possibility of home charging.

Now matter how you spin it, the grid (in its current form) is a significant concern if/when EVs and PHEVs become the majority of vehicles on the road. Fast charging an EV takes an incredible amount of amperage.

 

[TonyS]

About 80% of owned homes are detached. According to the latest census, a little more than 60% of U.S. citizens live in detached homes though. And, the percentage of detached homes is less in large metro areas, such as are prevalent in California. I live in suburban Utah and far less than 80% of the residences in my city are detached, and the percentage is decreasing - the large majority of new housing being built do not offer the possibility of home charging.

Now matter how you spin it, the grid (in its current form) is a significant concern if/when EVs and PHEVs become the majority of vehicles on the road. Fast charging an EV takes an incredible amount of amperage.

The average age of a vehicle on the road is over 12 years. We won't see the majority of new cars sold being Battery Electric (BEV) until 2030. By 2035 it will be hard to find a new gas powered vehicle for sale. So do the math you are looking at around 2050 before the majority of cars on the road are BEV.

Concerns about the grid, concerns about charging stations are just misplaced. Twenty five years before 51% of the cars on the road are electric. For the next decade the vast majority of sales of BEV's - like they are now - will continue to go to people that charge at home., at night. When demand on the grid is less and where many electric companies even offer cheaper rates.

Also worth noting is that around 40% of the people that have bought a BEV so far also have solar panels. While it's not entirely accurate, people like the idea of "driving for free".

And I'll point out PHEV's don't have to worry about anything hardly ever. They can run on both. Some people will buy them and always run on gas. Some people will buy them and never fill the gas tank.. And no charging problems at home NONE. The battery is much smaller than a BEV so you can plug it into a standard 110 wall outlet and be ready to go in 6-8 hours.


The REAL significant concerns are not the grid and not charging.. It's recycling and repair of the batteries. America' doesn't exactly have a great record on recycling unless it's really easy (say aluminum and steel) And what I've read is that few places have the expertise to safely repair the batteries.

 

[FriscoTXJoe]

It won't happen. Gavin is running for pres and wants to score points.

Rolling black outs in Cali every summer and they want to add twice as much demand for electricity they can't meet now?

I wanna do backflips, hit home runs and play the piano like a maestro. That will happen before this does.

 

[Big Kahuna]

I've seen the articles -

"Smart charging, also known as V1G charging, refers to a system where an EV and a charging device share a data connection so that you can intelligently manage how your EV charges by connecting it to the grid. Smart charging makes optimal use of the energy that is available during a certain period of time."

"Electricity Grids Can Handle Electric Vehicles Easily – They Just Need Proper Management"

"Dozens of utilities have been exploring the possibility of taking control of chargers themselves. In some programs, vehicle owners can plug in their car and specify when they will next need to use it, and the utility charges up the battery when electricity is cheapest and most plentiful."

What that means is oversight, control, mandates, monitoring. The utility companies will be given legal authority to determine when and how your vehicle is charged.

Also - electricity is a resource. Supply goes down as demand increases. Electric vehicle costs and projections are all based upon our current pricing and demand NOT on the future demand when everyone has an electric car. And costs then will get pretty pricey.

Your home electricity costs are going to skyrocket. Also they are trying to end all natural gas use in homes and businesses which will create more reliance on electricity. Prices will skyrocket. Industry uses a lot of electricity and their costs will go up. Product costs will skyrocket, companies will move production overseas and jobs will go away.

 

[stoptothink]

The average age of a vehicle on the road is over 12 years. We won't see the majority of new cars sold being Battery Electric (BEV) until 2030. By 2035 it will be hard to find a new gas powered vehicle for sale. So do the math you are looking at around 2050 before the majority of cars on the road are BEV.

Concerns about the grid, concerns about charging stations are just misplaced. Twenty five years before 51% of the cars on the road are electric. For the next decade the vast majority of sales of BEV's - like they are now - will continue to go to people that charge at home., at night. When demand on the grid is less and where many electric companies even offer cheaper rates.

Also worth noting is that around 40% of the people that have bought a BEV so far also have solar panels. While it's not entirely accurate, people like the idea of "driving for free".

And I'll point out PHEV's don't have to worry about anything hardly ever. They can run on both. Some people will buy them and always run on gas. Some people will buy them and never fill the gas tank.. And no charging problems at home NONE. The battery is much smaller than a BEV so you can plug it into a standard 110 wall outlet and be ready to go in 6-8 hours.


The REAL significant concerns are not the grid and not charging.. It's recycling and repair of the batteries. America' doesn't exactly have a great record on recycling unless it's really easy (say aluminum and steel) And what I've read is that few places have the expertise to safely repair the batteries.

Yes, there are theoretically 25yrs before ALL cars on California roads are BEV or PHEV, but are there legitimate viable plans to upgrade the infrastructure to the point where this isn't a concern (I'm not sure)? This is not even taking into account that California is trying to eliminate use of natural gas in homes - the demand for electricity is going to grow exponentially. California has issues right now with the grid and this is with ~7% of new vehicle sales being BEV and the extensive use of natural gas. I sure as heck don't have faith in that state to fix these issues.

 

[Bob The Builder]

What are the businesses and say contractors gonna do. They are faced with vastly upgrading their electrical services. Having to charge a dozen F-150 Lightnings with extended batteries or more? All at the same time overnight. Each Level 2 charger requiring 50A @ 240V single phase. If they are lucky and have 3 phase available at their location that will help a lot but still.

Is any thought being given to this? A 3 car house no way their 200A service will suffice. What about the grid? Transformers too small now on the poles not to mention the increased demand on the HV transmission lines. We are being led by first graders who cannot even think for themselves.

Right now on average it will cost someone over $6,000 to upgrade their service from 100A to 225A and this is a simple overhead drop to a meter socket and then the panel. Then add the power source for the charger which will most likely require a sub panel to meet NEC in the garage.

 

[Rojo]

This will probably be somewhat if not fully repealed in the next 12 years before it hits the deadline date. I wouldn't worry about it too much at the moment. The rate at which technology changes now 12 years is a very long time and we will probably see some major advances in these technologies that will make this more viable.

 

[Swenny]

All this reminds me of 10-15 years ago when many people were bitching and moaning about how the world was going to end when incandescent bulbs were phased out.

Some things never change.

 

[Bob The Builder]

All this reminds me of 10-15 years ago when many people were bitching and moaning about how the world was going to end when incandescent bulbs were phased out.

Some things never change.

I seem to recall at that time no one "bitching" as you call it over the fact that the infrastructure was not there to support the production of the compact Florescent bulb. Quite the opposite as a matter of fact.

There are those of us that do not question the viability of the EV. They must work or 5% of the population would not be buying them. We are simply questioning the wisdom of putting the cart before the horse and not planning ahead to ensure that an infrastructure is in place to support the major change of transitioning from ICE to EV. What I outlined is very simply going to put many low income folks out of the EV market. One needs to be able to see the forest for the trees. Can you?

The 7P's apply to this. Prior Proper Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance.

 

[Cward]

All this reminds me of 10-15 years ago when many people were bitching and moaning about how the world was going to end when incandescent bulbs were phased out.

Some things never change.

Maybe this will help you understand what everyone is talking about.
California's Poorly Maintained Power Grid is Still Terrible | NextBigFuture.com
California’s electric grid is not ready to meet climate goals - CalMatters

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