Chapman/Horsham -- 2022MY orders

[qwengler]

Order Date 10/28/2021
Hybrid XLT, Alto Blue
XLT Lux, CoPilot360, moonroof
currently unscheduled

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[maverick92]

Order Date 7/13/2021
Hybrid XLT, Alto Blue
XLT Lux, CoPilot360
Unscheduled

 

[theway-yay-ting]

I'm going to disagree. I believe all trims are being produced. While there clearly seems to be a favoring of Lariat over XLT, this may be as much as order rates for each trim vs production of each trim. Here's why.

Data from the forum's order tracker (May 8) is GROSSLY understating production. I will ASSUME (perhaps incorrectly) that it is nonetheless a reasonably unbiased sampling of the population. (After all, there is no better data available).

production month on x-axis, divided into counts of orginal order month (columns). Production for Feb onward greatly exceeds relative reporting here. Nonetheless, we see all trims reported as being built.

Given that the overall counts is small, let's examine by percentage.

X-axis is again production month, bars represent percentage of production by order month. The numbers are small, so error band is HIGH! However, a believable and rational trend is visible. Early orders have been selected while later orders have languished.

More interesting is by trim.

x-axis is build (production) month. bars represent percentage of reported builds for a particular trim. First edition production is rather constant (remember, we are dealing with small numbers). A 'similar' percentage of luxes (xlt and lariat) are being reported as scheduled each production month. We see this every day when a new ford research engineer, friend of brand manager, or just lucky a dog, gets their vehicles scheduled (all trim levels).

I think our limited sampling in the table shows far more August orders than July, and July over June. Ford is building across all trim levels. In my OPINION, we are just seeing the effects of constraints limiting the selections, and XLT Lux being the most popular trim by a lot.

Anecdotally, the process of first in first out, independent of dealer, has failed. The 'got my mav' postings bare that out.

ecoboost numbers show similar trend.

Very helpful presentation of the data (and a much larger sample size than just the Chapman Horsham orders). Clearly in our much more limited sample, I agree that the XLT Lux appears to be the most popular trim level, and by a wide margin. But given that, I guess we'll just have to wait and see who gets scheduled next. My money is still on the Lariat Lux orders (especially @Tylorious , who has both the earliest of the unscheduled Lariat Luxes and a FE).

Regardless of who ends up being "right", I really appreciate and enjoy the analysis and the conversation. If I can't get my Maverick this year, at least we can all sit around and prognosticate and commiserate, right? Well, and cheer on the folks who do get their builds, of course.

Hope this is a really good Thursday for a buncha folks!

 

[chuckles]

Hope this is a really good Thursday for a buncha folks!

Here, here! Besta'luck to all!

Please challenge my thoughts. I don't care who's right. Like you say, it is more an exercise. I just come from an environment where unsubstantiated opinions are just that.

Cheers

 

[MaineMav]

My father is in his 80s and after hearing so much about my order from Chapman decided to order one for himself but he does not use the internet so I'll report for him:

Order date: 09JAN2022
XL Ecoboost AWD
Carbonized gray
CP360
4K Tow Package
Rear sliding window
Full size spare
Floor mats without carpeted mats
Unscheduled
Edit: Just spoke with Ford and it's "In order processing" but no VIN yet. The last time I called it was "unscheduled"

 

[theway-yay-ting]

no, no, no that is just production....


just what was ordered looks like

So when I look at this one, on the Hybrid side I see roughly 625 Lariat Lux to roughly 850 XLT Lux, so roughly 42% to 58% split just between those two trim levels (disregarding other trims for time being).

But when I look at the corresponding build ratios between these two trims on your earlier chart

More interesting is by trim.

x-axis is build (production) month. bars represent percentage of reported builds for a particular trim. First edition production is rather constant (remember, we are dealing with small numbers).

...even disregarding the August builds (probably tiny numbers so the percentage is skewed, and it appears they weren't building XLTs at all in that time frame), the only month where the ratio of XLT Lux to Lariat Lux is greater appears to be June 22. In all the other production months, it seems they built a larger percentage of Lariat Lux than XLT Lux, even though there were a significantly higher percentage of outstanding XLT Lux orders.

It's possible that the multiple months of higher production rates on Lariat Lux models is finally opening up some slots for the XLT Lux orders, which would explain why the XLT Lux ratio for June is finally dramatically higher than the Lariat Lux. This also seems evident in the numbers we see within the folks who've responded to this thread - smaller number of Lariat Lux than XLT Lux, but even within those, 60% (6 of 10) have build dates, compared to 8% (1 out of 13) for the XLT Lux folks.

Plus, financially, it makes all the sense in the world to crank out the higher margin vehicles first (especially since they are only notionally honoring the FIFO aspect in the production allocation decision process). I hope I'm wrong, but that's my rationale.

 

[JSKUSN]

Ordered 9/28/2021
Hybrid Lariat, Luxury, 360, Area 51
VIN received
SCHEDULED week of 6/6/2022

 

[Tylorious]

Very helpful presentation of the data (and a much larger sample size than just the Chapman Horsham orders). Clearly in our much more limited sample, I agree that the XLT Lux appears to be the most popular trim level, and by a wide margin. But given that, I guess we'll just have to wait and see who gets scheduled next. My money is still on the Lariat Lux orders (especially @Tylorious , who has both the earliest of the unscheduled Lariat Luxes and a FE).

Regardless of who ends up being "right", I really appreciate and enjoy the analysis and the conversation. If I can't get my Maverick this year, at least we can all sit around and prognosticate and commiserate, right? Well, and cheer on the folks who do get their builds, of course.

Hope this is a really good Thursday for a buncha folks!

I called Ford for the first time today and they gave me a status of "order processing" I got a VIN and a build week of 6/20. I'm over the moon!

I appreciate all the work you've put in keeping Horsham customers in the loop. I hope you get your Maverick this year as well!

 

[Bad Actor]

I called Ford for the first time today and they gave me a status of "order processing" I got a VIN and a build week of 6/20. I'm over the moon!

I appreciate all the work you've put in keeping Horsham customers in the loop. I hope you get your Maverick this year as well!

"Order processing" you wouldn't have VIN. Clearly, you are "Scheduled for production."

 

[Tylorious]

"Order processing" you wouldn't have VIN. Clearly, you are "Scheduled for production."

That's what I was told on the phone. When I put my VIN in the tracker, it only says order confirmed. Nothing about being scheduled.

 

[Bad Actor]

That's what I was told on the phone. When I put my VIN in the tracker, it only says order confirmed. Nothing about being scheduled.

I imagine the agent was just on auto pilot after repeating "Order Processing" all day, lol.

 

[adawalli]

Alto Blue, Lariat Lux Hybrid, Sunroof -
Order Confirmed July 21,
Jan 20, for build week of March 14 April 11 Mar 28 - Built on Mar 31!
Delivered to dropship dealership Dealership May 13

 

[chuckles]

Here is a quick summary of unscheduled orders, just a numerical count. The details can be found on the first post.

With hybrids, we have only recorded 20% of the ~96 unscheduled orders; only 6% for the ~85 unscheduled orders. It would be useful to have a higher response rate. I'll happily accept a PM with simply order date, trim, options. If you are concerned, I can limit the reporting to the table below (and summarize options).

Hybrids​	​	​	​	​
​	XL​	XLT​	Lariat​	FE​
June​	​	1​	​	​
July​	​	4​	​	​
Aug​	​	5, 1​	​	​
Sep​	​	​	​	​
Oct​	1​	3​	2​	​
Nov​	1​	​	2​	​

All of the pending XLT orders have the Lux package, and all but to have Co-Pilot 360. The one XLT that was scheduled did not have the Lux package. The Lariats, scheduled and unscheduled, have the Lux package.

Ecoboost​	​	​	​	​
​	XL​	XLT​	Lariat​	FE​
June​	​	​	​	​
July​	​	​	​	​
Aug​	​	​	​	​
Sep​	​	​	​	​
Oct​	​	2​	​	​
Nov​	​	​	​	​
Dec​	1​	​	​	​
Jan​	1​	1​	​	​

The really low response of Ecoboost is curious. Perhaps there are fleet orders in there... (pure conjecture)

 

[HPR_XLT_LUX_PITT]

Hey All, just wondering who still has orders pending with Tom/SteveB at Chapman Horsham. There are about 180 or so of us. With a list, we might be able to see our position in a first in, first out queue. So, add you vehicle and order details (and update with changes please).

( This thread (my post) is not meant to throw shade on Chapman. They have been upfront with me, personally. The extended delivery I am now seeing is inline with expectations at time of order. I appreciate the pricing strategy they offered with the upfront knowledge of delivery unpredictability. )

Edit: Summary May 14
This is no where near all of the orders (of course) but those who reported recently.
This is quite similar to the open order list at Long-McArthur with mostly hybrid xlt lux waiting...

Hybrid ​	​	​	​	​
​	XL​	XLT​	Lariat​	FirstEdition​
June​	​	6/19/21 @Yar Lux, 360​	​	​
July​	​	7/6/21 @Bulldog Lux, 360​	7/21/21 @adawali Lux, moonroof built 3/31 ​	7/16/21 @PaidEMS Lux, 360 built 4/13 ​
​	​	7/8/21 @BobS Lux, 360​	7/23/21 @Hammey13 Lux, 360 built 3/31 ​	7/24/21 @TheShark Lux, 360 built 4/19 ​
​	​	7/13/21 @maverick92 Lux, 360​	​	​
​	​	7/27/21 @yakefu Lux, 360​	​	​
Aug​	8/17/21 @Tailender moonroof, hitch built 4/6/22 ​	8/2/21 @Ken_Ohki Lux, 360​	​	​
​	​	8/11/21 @cougarman Lux, 360​	​	​
​	​	8/16/21 @Noah (poverty) hitch built 4/1/22 ​	​	8/16/21 @Tylorious Lux, 360 scheduled 6/20 ​
​	​	8/18/21 @Bronco_joe Lux​	​	​
​	​	8/30/21 @chuckles Lux, 360​	​	​
​	​	8/31/21 @TFL Lux, Moonroof​	​	​
Sep​	​	​	9/1/21 @abjbrtd Lux, 360 built 4/21 ​	​
​	​	​	9/28/21 @JSKUSN Lux, 360 scheduled 6/6/22 ​	​
Oct​	10/15/21 @Atisko 360​	10/1/21 @HPR_XLT_LUX_PITT Lux, Moonroof​	10/8/21 @MLowe05 Lux​	​
​	​	10/26/21 @theway-yay-ting Lux, 360​	10/25/21 @ssumass Lux​	​
​	​	10/28/21 @qwengler Lux, 360, moonroof​	​	​
Nov​	11/11/21 @RonFLA 360​	​	11/2/21 @skadizzle Lux​	​
​	​	​	11/6/21 @macaroni_life Lux, 360​	​
​	​	​	​	​
Ecoboost​	​	​	​	​
​	XL​	XLT​	Lariat​	FE​
June​	​	​	​	​
Junly​	​	​	​	​
Aug​	​	​	8/28/21 @Bossman4 Lux tow built april 25 ​	​
Sep​	​	​	​	​
Oct​	​	10/2/21 @Larry G Lux, 360, EcoFX4​	​	​
​	​	10/31/21 @Decayed 360, EcoFX4, 4kTow​	​	​
Nov​	​	​	​	​
Dec​	12/4/21 @Chuck Norris Eco​	​	​	​
Jan​	1/9/22 @MaineMav Eco AWD, 4K, 360​	1/21/22 @Johnkn Lux, 360, Eco​	​	​

Thanks, this helps

 

[chuckles]

Thanks, this helps

glad to help. just looking for any way of predicting when I might get mine, and if it will be a 23my.

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