Bill Ford Interview, Chip Shortage

NNJGUY

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Bill Ford interviewed on CNN this morning. Bill Ford says chip shortage should begin to elevate 2nd half of 2022. Take from this what you will. My take “should begin” which means to me later delivery.

 

Bad Actor

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I read yesterday that Texas Instruments and Samsung are building multiple semiconductor plants in the US. Scheduled to be operational by 2025. Doesn't help in the short term, but these shortages should become a thing of the past.
 

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People in the industry have been saying the shortage would get better "later" for as long as there's been a shortage. If the fabs are near max output and things are still this short, I doubt it will get much better than it is now until new fabs open. Then again, it takes a while to make chips, so the max output will finally be hitting the market later this year?
 

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The chip shortage won't get better any time soon. There's only 2 major chip makers/producers in the world right now that are operating at max capacity, TSMC in Taiwan and Samsung in Korea. Building new manufacturing facilities takes time to get to speed. Tesla got ahead by taking chips that they could get their hands on and rewrite the software (Tesla is a software or tech company). Ford and other auto makers are not ready to do the same as they don't even have a software team capable of doing the same thing as Tesla. If demands keep on coming I highly doubt that we are going to see this issue going any time soon.
P.S: Potato chips are much quicker to produce vs. semi conductor chips. This is why we got plenty of potato chips plants in the U.S.
 

johnpbrewer

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Bill Ford interviewed on CNN this morning. Bill Ford says chip shortage should begin to elevate 2nd half of 2022. Take from this what you will. My take “should begin” which means to me later delivery.
Did you mean elevate (as in get worse) or alleviate (as become less severe) ?
 


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The chip shortage won't get better any time soon. There's only 2 major chip makers/producers in the world right now that are operating at max capacity, TSMC in Taiwan and Samsung in Korea. Building new manufacturing facilities takes time to get to speed. Tesla got ahead by taking chips that they could get their hands on and rewrite the software (Tesla is a software or tech company). Ford and other auto makers are not ready to do the same as they don't even have a software team capable of doing the same thing as Tesla. If demands keep on coming I highly doubt that we are going to see this issue going any time soon.
P.S: Potato chips are much quicker to produce vs. semi conductor chips. This is why we got plenty of potato chips plants in the U.S.
Also one thing to note is that chips aren't often interchangable. I see people sometimes referring to chips as just a number needed. Most folks get this but some aren't.

The challenge is that Ford needs a specific set of chips and has been smart in making them partially interchangeable across their own models but often that is even limited. The chips needed for the 360 system can work in other 360 systems, but can't just be jammed in an airbag or radio.
 

Maverickman74

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Ford is also building tech in Tennessee.

All this chip issue is one more reason to offer vehicle without all the dumb touchscreens, driving assists, and add manuals that dont take computers to operate. Just as a base option, for us poor folk.
 

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I read yesterday that Texas Instruments and Samsung are building multiple semiconductor plants in the US. Scheduled to be operational by 2025. Doesn't help in the short term, but these shortages should become a thing of the past.
Until cryptocurrencies crash again and there's another market oversaturation and they close down semiconductor plants again. I really wish they would regulate cryptocurrencies, I honestly feel that they have contributed to a huge part of our current market conditions. Basically money from nothing and crypto mining is putting such a strain on the semi-conductor supply chain.
 

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Ford is also building tech in Tennessee.

All this chip issue is one more reason to offer vehicle without all the dumb touchscreens, driving assists, and add manuals that dont take computers to operate. Just as a base option, for us poor folk.
Agreed. Don't want any of it. The less a smartphone is involved in every day life, the better. As far as all the touchscreens and all that crap, as has been mentioned in other posts on here, it's just one more thing with potential for failure. Guess how well my power mirrors, power windows, and tape deck work in the '97 Ranger? Spoiler alert: not well. These gaudy touchscreens will crap out just the same. Except you'll be left with zero functionality, whereas my AM/FM radio still works :ROFLMAO:
 

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Semiconductor manufacturing is cyclical, and eventually we will have a "bust" (vs. boom times for Semi's).

Why? Let's use MTC ordering as an example. There are quite a few here that have multiple orders from multiple dealers. There are also folks here that still have an open order even though they have bought something else. "We" do so because the market is hot and we figure we can flip the truck if necessary when it comes in.

Companies ordering "chips" are in the same situation. Many are trying to order from a variety of supplier and trying to get more than they might need because of the tight supply.

Both of these situations will eventually resolve themselves. There will be a point down the road where it is not profitable to buy and extra vehicle and flip it, or to buy extra chips. When that happens? Who knows? It is always hard to predict when the bull market (boom) ends. But it will.

As an aside, other than Apple my most profitable investment in my life so far was a company called Linear Technology. LLTC was an analog chip manufacturer - that most here probably never heard of but who had some of the best margins in the industry. $0.50, $1.00, kinds of items. [The Mars Rover had over 800 of their devices on it.] LLTC was eventually bought by ADI (Analog Devices). While I still own some ADI (it too has continued to be a good investment), most of the purchase price for LLTC was unfortunately in cash. I say "unfortunately" because I had to pay long term capital gains on my LLTC profits. (But it is better to pay the tax man than to have losses.)
 

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I read yesterday that Texas Instruments and Samsung are building multiple semiconductor plants in the US. Scheduled to be operational by 2025. Doesn't help in the short term, but these shortages should become a thing of the past.
Operational in 2025 and usually takes 18-24 months (or more) to reach max capacity
 

Maverick2023

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Also one thing to note is that chips aren't often interchangable. I see people sometimes referring to chips as just a number needed. Most folks get this but some aren't.

The challenge is that Ford needs a specific set of chips and has been smart in making them partially interchangeable across their own models but often that is even limited. The chips needed for the 360 system can work in other 360 systems, but can't just be jammed in an airbag or radio.
Agreed. Demands for chips have gone up exponentially since the pandemic in part due to people working from home and requiring upgrade to their computers etc.. Also making things worst is corporations and companies scaling back on their orders for chips at the start of pandemic forcing some scaling back of chips productions. Asia enforced stricter lockdowns and thus impact the re-start of chips productions when demands for them came back last year. All in all, everything went side ways real quick and we are still recovering from this global pandemic, economically speaking.
 

Thoron99

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Until cryptocurrencies crash again and there's another market oversaturation and they close down semiconductor plants again. I really wish they would regulate cryptocurrencies, I honestly feel that they have contributed to a huge part of our current market conditions. Basically money from nothing and crypto mining is putting such a strain on the semi-conductor supply chain.
I also put some blame on people who think they need to be able to change their home thermostat from their phone while at work, and their toaster needs a touchscreen that can look recipes up on the internet. (Saw one like that on Amazon)

The whole “Internet of things” in other words.
 

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Having touchscreens on everything will be one of those things future people will make fun of us for someday. Like how cell phones got tiny in the mid-00s, the giant CD albums we had in the 90s, and how everything was foil covered in the 50s.

 

 
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