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brucerob62

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nuts now i see why the orders were shut off..
 

Syntax Error

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I'm personally gonna go with 65% of orders for MY2023 were Hybrids. I don't have any hard evidence, but from the "ratios" I've seen quoted around, it seems reasonable to assume at least the majority of MY2023 orders were Hybrid.

Also have to remember that MY2023 orders includes MY2022 rollovers that had to be submitted as MY2023 orders and those probably mostly skew Hybrid since they weren't scheduled in 2022 for whatever reason.
 

xncrman

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Ford is working from behind the 8 ball on Maverick production. Absolutely knew Ford would shut down order banks quickly once the rollover MY22 orders were input which probably accounted for half the total 2023 orders now. Although they made one month of over 10,000 vehicles I have my doubts they can sustain it current and near future. Ford is not making the same mistake for 2023 production leading into 2024. They do not want the same backlog moving forward.
 

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jibbersmav

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It will definitely take a while, but 52k hybrids may be almost doable for Ford. If Ford can make 110k at a 40/60 split, that is 44k hybrids for the year. So 8k rolling over to 2024. No great, but not too different from this year. The real issue will be the dealer allocations and which orders get rolled over. We know it will not be fair...
There will be no "rolling over" from 23 to 24. If you don't get your 23 built, that's it, the end, no rollover.
 

ListedGuru

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Ford is working from behind the 8 ball on Maverick production. Absolutely knew Ford would shut down order banks quickly once the rollover MY22 orders were input which probably accounted for half the total 2023 orders now. Although they made one month of over 10,000 vehicles I have my doubts they can sustain it current and near future. Ford is not making the same mistake for 2023 production leading into 2024. They do not want the same backlog moving forward.
So your thinking that the MY22 rollovers are half of the 86K MY23 orders? That seems high to me but who the heck knows?
 

DavesMav

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So your thinking that the MY22 rollovers are half of the 86K MY23 orders? That seems high to me but who the heck knows?
Seems high to me as well. I could see half of the hybrid orders being "rollovers", maybe, but not half of all MY23 orders.
 

Syntax Error

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There will be no "rolling over" from 23 to 24. If you don't get your 23 built, that's it, the end, no rollover.
It'll be a "roll over" like what we saw with the MY2022 to MY2023 orders - that is, place a new order as an MY2023 at the new pricing and hope your dealer actually puts you in the appropriate priority code.
 

tdonch

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So your thinking that the MY22 rollovers are half of the 86K MY23 orders? That seems high to me but who the heck knows?
My dealer said of the 51 total MY23 orders, 11 were roll over orders from MY22. Of course, this is a single example.
 
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I think another not-so-obvious problem with the 86,000 orders is A LOT of folks placed more than 1 order. There is more demand than supply, thus some of you have opted to treat this like a lottery and put as many orders in as you can, hoping at least one will hit... I'd venture to guess hundreds of individuals on this very forum have placed more than one single 2023 order. I don't care what the polls on here say, most won't openly admit to this anyways. Not to mention all of the flippers. So long as folks get a hybrid at MSRP + a reasonable doc fee, they will be able to flip for at least a few thousand, regardless of rising rates or higher MSRP. And with that in mind, that just compounded the problem because even folks who only wanted one likely ordered more just because they could.
 

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I for one enjoy the speculation!

86,000 is less than some previous speculation and is a number that gives hope that most of these orders can be filled. Certainly all Ecoboost orders should be hopeful.

Hybrids are definitely cutting it close based on the mix being upside down.
Let’s also consider how many months of MY23 production? 10?
 

rlhdweman

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So your thinking that the MY22 rollovers are half of the 86K MY23 orders? That seems high to me but who the heck knows?
I would say no, 97,000 have been built so far, leaves at least another 15-20K who have VIN's, can they produce all of them before MY23 begins, probably not, but close. People ordering MY23 may be different, I went to the Maverick build & price & building a 23 XLT the same as my 22 would now be $1100 more, but I could now get the XL for $1100 less, it now includes cruise control, how many of us ordered the XLT to get it, I'm betting a lot did & now people who want that feature may be happy with the XL, I am happy with the XLT's extra features & interior colors, but if I could have ordered an XL for probably 2 grand less, I think I would have. If hybrids are limited by constraint items, & EB's are not, they will be able to fill most EB orders & start putting EB models on dealer lots., that could be a good thing.
 

mrbill

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I know its sounds like a lot but f-150s "use" to be close to a million in one year.some years. I guess the supply chain is really nuts. its a shame , we waited a year for a 22 that never showed, so we wait again for a 2023 we reordered
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