I added an 80% factor to everything and the numbers are a lot further off Ford's intermittent constraint percentages. If you are right that fleet orders are included in the number, then the 3,900 or so Mavericks I'm missing in my numbers must be those external orders.@commadorebob A few suggestions to make your projection more accurate. The Ford announced number of 77,800 orders is for United States only. It should include US fleet orders but not orders outside the US (Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina). The VIN numbers are for all vehicles manufactured including those sold outside the US. Last year around 20% of the Maverick sales went to country's outside the US. That's probably a good number to use for estimating this year.
I think I'll stick with my manual adjustments until I hunt down Ford's international sales reports.
Even with the 80% fudge factor, EBs are done in June (allocations notwithstanding).
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