Ford Store Morgan Hill: dealer says XL Hybrid Order unclear, appears to urge cancelling

[bwiese]

This would've been our 2nd Mav XL; ordered GF's in summer 2021 and it was delivered in Dec 2021.

Six days ago i got this from salesman at Ford Store Morgan Hill (CA, about 12mi south of San Jose)....

Order update : M01C W8E Maverick In Order Processing Unscheduled- Clean Sep-16-2022​

Your maverick is waiting for a scheduled build date, I will keep you updated on the status ​

and tracking! ​

​

Other than several 'delay' emails from Ford this is the first encouraging news I had.
Was expecting a schedule date w VIN#.

Then today (1 hour ago) he sent this:

William,​

Unfortunately, at this time we do not believe that your order with us will be scheduled or produced in this model year. Due to the constant production issues Ford is experiencing it is unlikely that we will be able to deliver on the order you have placed. We know this is extremely frustrating but wanted to make sure you knew this so you can adjust or make plans accordingly. We are happy to keep the order in the system in the off chance something in production changes. We can also keep you update should an order becomes available or we happen to get an Pre-Owned model. Please let me know if I can get you any other information or can be of assistance in any other way. We appreciate the opportunity you have given us and wish we could have delivered on it.​

​

Now, when I ordered 1st MavXL last year the guy who did the ordering was a long term mgmt employee & understood the order entry system. It was placed 'early' in ordering window - likely 1st/2nd day. We boosted the Order Priority to "10" and removed any options that were 'constrained' (bedliner, etc.) The sales guy was also flexible and skilled.

I woulda consulted my same sales guy again but he was out on Order Day... For THIS 2nd order, I ordered on Sept 16 "ASAP". It took several hours for order to get in despite my urging (yeah, he prob had other pending work). When asked to bump to Order Priority 10 I was refused and told he couldn't do it etc. but order would be OK.

I know there were some contraints on airbags too a month into things but they were resolved (as well as for warranty parts).

1. Did refusal of multiple requests to tweak order priority to '10' from default screw my order?

2. Did the several hours delay on Sept 16 til afternoon place my order in jeapordy?

3. If my order priority is boosted to '10' do I have a chance for my XL in near future?

You'd figure a guy ordering a 2nd vehicle from a dealership 1 yr later might get a little better shake....

... or was I scammed & they're gonna grab my XL and flip it to someone else with a markup?

I have not cancelled my order. I will be calling the 800# for their sense..... and they had told me to elevate the order priority to 10.


Thx,
Irritated Bill

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[icegradner]

It's just the volume of hybrid orders, I doubt it's anything the dealer did. Ford told dealers they would be making fewer hybrids for 2023, 35% vs 40% for MY22.

If you want it, stick with it and wait, if not move on.

 

[Cheesehead]

I don’t see anything from the salesperson urging cancellation, just that they are saying it probably won’t be built and they want you to plan accordingly.

 

[uga]

The only thing you can do is wait it out and hope for some kind of private offer for 2024 if its not a 2023.

Yes, I know it was stated that Ford would not do this but they will have a lot of pissed off customers do to them leaving the order window open and not shutting new orders down, They new they were accepting far more orders than they could build so its there fault.

 

[MoreGas]

He's probably telling you that because the dealer has limited allocations, 2023 hybrid production is limited to 35% and XL are limited to 15%... He's just telling you the odds are low. This is better communication than most people on this forum have received.

 

[Traegorn]

The odds aren't zero that you'll get it, but it is true that every time they schedule another week that you aren't on they drop. I think the dealer is just trying to be realistic. Ford had twice as many orders for Hybrids as they can build for 2023.

 

[dcs12345]

It looks like they are
A. Trying to keep you informed and letting you know that it might not be built (maybe they are guessing or maybe they know they don’t have any allocations)
B. Will let you know if someone else decides to not buy their Mav order
or
C. They want to open your mind to the fear that your hybrid might not come in, so maybe you should buy something else from them if you need a vehicle now.
D. They hope you pick C. and they can sell your order when it comes in.

 

[jahl]

The odds aren't zero that you'll get it, but it is true that every time they schedule another week that you aren't on they drop.

No, his odds of being built at all are pretty much the same as other hybrid orders: 1:X. It was 1:X in September, and it is 1:X now. It will be 1:X until they are done building, at which point he will find out if he was lucky or not.

And his odds of being scheduled go up each week. As each week of builds lowers the denominator by however many they just built.


I stand corrected.

 

[Traegorn]

No, his odds of being built at all are pretty much the same as other hybrid orders: 1:X. It was 1:X in September, and it is 1:X now. It will be 1:X until they are done building, at which point he will find out if he was lucky or not.

And his odds of being scheduled go up each week. As each week of builds lowers the denominator by however many they just built.

Except no, that's not how this works.

Say you have 100 people to be picked for 50 slots.

Week one, a person has a 50% chance of getting a slot, right?

Ten people get picked, leaving 40 spots for 90 people. That's means if you don't get picked that first week, it's approximately a 44% chance of getting a slot the second week.

The next week ten more people get picked, taking up another 10 slots. Which means the remaining 80 people are competing for 30 spots. That's a 37.5% chance the next round for folks to get picked.

Do you see how it keeps dropping every week?

 

[RockHoundTX]

No, his odds of being built at all are pretty much the same as other hybrid orders: 1:X. It was 1:X in September, and it is 1:X now. It will be 1:X until they are done building, at which point he will find out if he was lucky or not.

And his odds of being scheduled go up each week. As each week of builds lowers the denominator by however many they just built.

In addition to what Traegorn said, the "same as other hybrid orders" is also incorrect. There are 4x the number of XLTs being built as there are XLs. Let's assume you are the 3rd hybrid order out of 10 at your dealer with an XLT and XL being in front of you. You should be 3rd in line, correct? Nope. You are likely closer to 6th to 8th in line. The XLT gets built first, then another XLT or two (or 3), then the XL in front of you, then a couple of more XLTs. and then finally your XL (this assumes no constraint items on any of the builds). If your dealer only gets allocated 5 hybrids and they have 10 orders, then your are SOL in this scenario. Now if you happen to be the first XL in this scenario, then you have a good chance. However, unless your dealer actually tells you their allocation as well as lays out how many XLTs and XLs were submitted before you (and there is a 99.99% chance they will not), then it is really a guessing game. Have people gotten luckY? Yes, Could you get lucky? Yes. But the odds are likely not in your favor. At least your dealership was willing to tell you that.

Why do I care? I am in the same situation. I ordered an XL Hybrid on Oct 1, 2021. At this point, I can't even guess as to what my chances of ever getting it are (but assuming really low). I asked over and over where I sit (other than being a Priority 10) and they refuse to tell. They did give me the overall numbers (something like 300+ total orders with over half of these being hybrids. I think they had something like 29 XL HYbrids. And this is at a mid-sized Ford delaership. I can't imagine how many orders a large dealership had.) However, Ecos seem to be flowing like water. Already been contacted a few times about an Eco that was available (with and without an ADM). I just have absolutely zero interest in an Eco.

 

[jahl]

Except no, that's not how this works.

Say you have 100 people to be picked for 50 slots.

Week one, a person has a 50% chance of getting a slot, right?

Ten people get picked, leaving 40 spots for 90 people. That's means if you don't get picked that first week, it's approximately a 44% chance of getting a slot the second week.

The next week ten more people get picked, taking up another 10 slots. Which means the remaining 80 people are competing for 30 spots. That's a 37.5% chance the next round for folks to get picked.

Do you see how it keeps dropping every week?

Bah! Serves me right for trying to get clever with the math. You are right.

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